NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	4.7 [917]		MVP	Rasho Nesterovic (SAS): +10.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	96		Comeback	1.3 [492]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -9.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasho Nesterovic	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.02	-0.02	12	58%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	8	59%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	9	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	21	48%	-0.02	0	0.00	12	50%	-0.05
Bruce Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	18	47%	0.03	5	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	79%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tierre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mihm	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	7	47%	-0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	15	60%	0.06	6	-0.12	10	60%	-0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.04	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	22	49%	-0.01	3	-0.08	13	85%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.8	32.2	16.7	31.2	3.7	39.0	151.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +26.3%

LAL -4.9%

SAS +11.7%

SAS +15.0%

SAS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.8	14.5	15.5	114.1	104.3	104.0
season	16.3	15.7		105.8	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		108.8	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	16.5	14.5	20.9	16.8
LAL	15.2	15.5	12.2	15.9	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	68	69	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.15	9	0	9	16.5	17.5	-0.93	14.1	15.8	-1.67
Bruce Bowen	56	57	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	-2	13	16.1	17.8	-1.65	15.0	13.7	1.27
Tim Duncan	59	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.20	5	4	1	18.6	13.5	5.13	15.6	12.6	3.00
Beno Udrih	18	19	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.10	15	-6	21	17.6	16.6	1.04	16.8	13.9	2.91
Brent Barry	59	59	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	6	-3	16.5	17.2	-0.69	14.8	14.0	0.88
Manu Ginobili	67	66	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	6	-3	17.5	14.8	2.65	13.8	16.3	-2.42
Robert Horry	54	53	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	2	5	15.0	19.2	-4.20	13.5	15.9	-2.41
Tony Parker	74	73	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.34	-6	15	-21	16.6	17.6	-1.04	13.9	16.8	-2.91
Devin Brown	2	2	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	8	-7	18.0	16.7	1.26	14.0	14.5	-0.54
Malik Rose	3	3	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	12	-15	17.3	16.8	0.58	21.0	14.3	6.69

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kareem Rush	13	14	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.15	6	-15	21	10.5	15.2	-4.74	18.0	16.6	1.45
Jumaine Jones	30	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-8	7	14.7	14.5	0.25	16.2	17.0	-0.88
Chucky Atkins	68	72	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.23	4	-13	17	14.2	15.5	-1.31	16.5	17.7	-1.25
Brian Cook	26	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-7	5	13.2	15.1	-1.87	17.1	16.6	0.48
Chris Mihm	61	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-7	5	14.9	13.8	1.05	16.7	17.0	-0.34
Lamar Odom	72	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-8	7	14.5	14.6	-0.15	17.0	15.8	1.18
Brian Grant	25	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	4	-17	15.2	14.3	0.86	16.0	17.1	-1.08
Caron Butler	56	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-2	-5	14.6	14.5	0.10	16.9	16.6	0.26
Tierre Brown	24	20	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.00	-13	4	-17	15.5	14.2	1.31	17.7	16.5	1.25
Kobe Bryant	85	85	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.10	-16	7	-23	15.1	8.0	7.07	16.7	17.6	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 98, MIA 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
TOR 120, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
TOR 111, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%