NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	98		Excitement	5.6 [718]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +7.5%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	1.3 [515]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -15.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	-0.01	-0.04	17	49%	0.05	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.03	18	60%	0.11	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Justin Holiday	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	7	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	12	37%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.05
Tiago Splitter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.01	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Patterson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.02	8	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	11	41%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	6	29%	-0.04	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.06	12	88%	0.15	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.02	15	58%	0.10	4	-0.09	6	67%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.05	11	73%	0.09	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	14	32%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	0.00	-0.05	9	11%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	9	22%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.5	32.2	15.4	24.6	2.6	33.2	133.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +17.6%

ATL +7.8%

ATL +2.3%

ATL +20.9%

ATL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	15.4	14.9	99.0	94.8	105.1
season	14.2	15.5		104.1	104.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		103.1	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.2	12.7	16.0	13.4	14.0
MIA	15.2	17.3	16.0	13.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	70	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.05	20	-14	34	13.9	14.3	-0.47	15.6	14.8	0.80
Kyle Korver	71	71	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.20	11	-5	16	14.0	13.9	0.11	15.5	15.0	0.59
Al Horford	68	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-5	16	14.6	12.8	1.75	15.4	15.3	0.12
Paul Millsap	75	72	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	6	-6	14.0	14.1	-0.15	15.0	16.5	-1.47
Justin Holiday	29	27	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	1	4	12.0	14.9	-2.89	16.1	15.1	1.05
Tiago Splitter	41	41	0.17	0.34	-0.17	0.22	-2	8	-10	14.6	13.6	0.98	15.4	15.4	-0.00
Kent Bazemore	68	65	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.40	-8	14	-22	14.2	13.6	0.58	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Mike Scott	23	24	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	0	6	14.2	13.9	0.27	16.4	15.1	1.31
Lamar Patterson	16	16	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	6	-6	13.6	14.1	-0.53	14.8	15.5	-0.69
Dennis Schroder	34	30	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.29	-13	19	-32	14.0	14.0	-0.06	15.3	15.4	-0.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	20	21	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.16	8	-14	22	15.1	15.5	-0.37	14.9	13.8	1.08
Josh McRoberts	22	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	0	-6	16.1	15.2	0.90	13.2	14.2	-1.06
Luol Deng	48	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-1	-4	16.0	14.8	1.16	13.8	14.3	-0.55
Mario Chalmers	46	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	-4	2	14.3	16.3	-1.99	13.0	14.9	-1.84
Tyler Johnson	43	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	1	-8	15.5	15.3	0.22	13.7	14.3	-0.63
Goran Dragic	63	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.34	2	-8	10	15.4	15.4	0.06	14.1	13.9	0.15
Justise Winslow	46	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-1	-4	15.3	15.5	-0.21	14.1	14.0	0.10
Dwyane Wade	55	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	0	-6	15.5	15.2	0.27	14.5	13.4	1.04
Hassan Whiteside	62	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-2	-2	15.5	15.1	0.43	14.9	12.6	2.24
Chris Bosh	80	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-1	-4	15.3	15.8	-0.52	13.9	14.5	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.23,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.24,0.19,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.05,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 112, UTA 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.01,0	94.5%
IND 90, NYK 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.2%
CHA 104, BKN 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.9%