NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	112		Excitement	4.8 [887]		MVP	Deron Williams (UTA): +18.7%
Utah Jazz	105		Comeback	1.1 [939]		LVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): -7.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.13	0.04	-0.00	15	67%	0.22	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.04
Gary Neal	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.02	-0.01	5	76%	0.14	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	12	58%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	15	68%	0.15	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	47%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	13	45%	0.04	3	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
DeJuan Blair	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.18	0.03	0.02	24	70%	0.27	4	-0.08	8	87%	0.01
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	8	76%	0.13	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.00	0.04	15	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jeremy Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	4	78%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	6	48%	-0.01	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
Raja Bell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	2.8	30.0	18.4	29.5	2.7	38.2	152.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.0%

SAS +4.1%

SAS +11.9%

SAS +3.5%

SAS +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	16.5	13.8	15.5	119.1	109.4	105.7
season	15.5	15.9		109.3	106.4
opponent	15.3	15.2		108.2	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	16.8	17.3	16.9	16.5
UTA	13.5	15.2	14.8	11.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	60	63	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	0	7	16.2	17.1	-0.96	13.8	13.8	0.08
Tony Parker	74	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	2	3	17.2	14.1	3.03	13.4	15.1	-1.68
Manu Ginobili	71	72	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	4	-1	16.3	17.3	-0.97	13.5	14.8	-1.36
Richard Jefferson	66	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	3	1	16.7	16.1	0.60	13.5	14.5	-0.97
Tim Duncan	59	58	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	6	-5	18.1	14.0	4.08	13.5	14.3	-0.83
Antonio McDyess	44	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	0	7	15.2	17.7	-2.45	14.2	13.5	0.77
DeJuan Blair	45	44	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	2	3	17.5	15.7	1.79	13.9	13.7	0.18
Gary Neal	37	40	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	8	-9	15.6	17.1	-1.46	15.2	12.8	2.34
Tiago Splitter	14	17	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	3	1	12.0	17.3	-5.33	14.6	13.6	0.94

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Evans	17	17	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.27	13	-20	33	13.2	13.9	-0.77	17.3	16.4	0.93
Gordon Hayward	2	1	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-9	11	11.0	13.9	-2.87	12.0	16.6	-4.58
Ronnie Price	3	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-4	1	17.0	13.7	3.29	12.0	16.7	-4.73
Paul Millsap	36	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-9	11	13.8	13.8	-0.06	17.8	15.7	2.11
Francisco Elson	15	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.06	-6	-1	-5	15.1	13.6	1.49	12.0	17.3	-5.26
Mehmet Okur	29	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.11	-3	-4	1	14.5	13.5	1.01	14.3	17.6	-3.23
Earl Watson	30	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-6	5	14.5	13.5	1.05	17.0	16.3	0.69
CJ Miles	56	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-4	1	13.7	13.9	-0.19	15.3	18.2	-2.91
Raja Bell	65	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-5	3	13.9	13.6	0.29	17.4	14.6	2.86
Deron Williams	83	81	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-1	-5	13.4	16.7	-3.33	16.8	14.8	1.96
Al Jefferson	69	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	2	-11	13.4	14.8	-1.34	17.4	14.4	2.93
Andrei Kirilenko	75	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.05	-19	12	-31	13.9	13.4	0.55	16.6	16.3	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, TOR 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.3,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0.01,0	95.6%
MIA 96, ATL 74	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
IND 107, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.21,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0	95.1%