NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	107		Excitement	4.8 [836]		MVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): +13.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Comeback	1.0 [517]		LVP	Brad Miller (IND): -11.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Tinsley	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.03	-0.01	9	89%	0.17	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.03	11	73%	0.10	0	0.00	8	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	12	68%	0.12	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	20	50%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.01	-0.06	8	28%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Jonathan Bender	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	7	27%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Al Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	14	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	8	40%	-0.04	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	0.01	18	59%	0.09	4	-0.06	10	90%	0.03
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Igor Rakocevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	15	51%	-0.01	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.02
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	8	53%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.03	13	59%	0.01	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	0.07	15	60%	0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	28.5	15.7	25.2	1.7	43.0	138.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +36.2%

MIN -4.2%

IND +5.0%

IND +11.6%

IND +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIN	NBA	IND	MIN	NBA
this game	14.7	14.0	15.5	107.0	100.0	101.6
season	15.4	14.9		102.2	104.0
opponent	15.8	15.5		102.3	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.8	14.7	16.4	14.0	14.7
MIN	13.9	15.3	14.3	12.7	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	57	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.22	6	0	6	14.4	14.9	-0.49	13.1	15.3	-2.21
Metta World Peace	73	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	0	6	14.1	16.0	-1.90	14.4	13.1	1.28
Erick Strickland	41	42	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	-3	12	14.2	15.0	-0.77	12.8	14.8	-2.01
Al Harrington	71	69	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	6	-6	15.8	11.7	4.12	14.8	12.2	2.62
Brad Miller	57	59	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	0	6	15.5	13.5	1.96	15.4	12.1	3.32
Jermaine O'Neal	72	72	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.35	-3	9	-12	14.7	14.6	0.06	14.1	13.8	0.30
Jonathan Bender	44	45	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.08	6	0	6	14.8	14.5	0.26	13.6	14.3	-0.66
Jamaal Tinsley	64	64	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.26	-1	7	-8	13.9	16.0	-2.15	14.2	13.7	0.44
Jeff Foster	19	19	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	1	4	14.1	14.8	-0.74	12.9	14.3	-1.37
Fred Jones	2	3	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	10	-14	9.0	14.8	-5.77	1.0	14.4	-13.41

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Jackson	16	15	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.11	6	-12	18	11.9	14.4	-2.54	18.5	14.0	4.57
Igor Rakocevic	2	3	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-4	2	8.5	14.1	-5.62	10.7	14.8	-4.11
Anthony Peeler	56	57	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.43	11	-17	28	12.8	15.5	-2.67	15.2	13.9	1.26
Rod Strickland	29	27	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-4	2	14.5	13.8	0.66	17.0	13.8	3.17
Loren Woods	24	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-1	-4	13.9	14.0	-0.12	14.9	14.6	0.35
Reggie Slater	9	8	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	4	-14	14.0	14.0	-0.01	10.2	15.0	-4.78
Kendall Gill	37	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-4	2	13.8	14.1	-0.27	12.1	16.0	-3.88
Rasho Nesterovic	62	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.14	-6	0	-6	15.8	11.1	4.69	15.8	12.6	3.18
Troy Hudson	70	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-4	2	14.0	14.1	-0.13	13.9	16.3	-2.40
Wally Szczerbiak	82	81	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-4	2	13.4	16.5	-3.10	14.2	16.7	-2.51
Gary Trent	34	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	8	-22	15.1	13.4	1.67	14.4	14.8	-0.32
Kevin Garnett	84	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-4	2	14.1	13.6	0.51	14.6	14.7	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.21,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 112, UTA 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.01,0	95.1%
MIA 96, ATL 74	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
NYK 105, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0	94.6%