NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	140		Excitement	6.6 [544]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +28.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	127		Comeback	3.8 [102]		LVP	Aaron Wiggins (OKC): -7.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.29	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.19	0.07	-0.02	22	64%	0.29	0	0.00	9	100%	0.05
Nikola Jokic	0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.25	0.08	0.05	20	78%	0.29	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.01
Peyton Watson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.06	0.02	7	114%	0.24	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.02	12	71%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Pickett	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.03	10	73%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Christian Braun	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	11	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.23	0.07	0.02	16	81%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.05	0.03	14	74%	0.21	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.05
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	8	75%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	76%	0.17	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.04	16	56%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dillon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ousmane Dieng	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	11	32%	-0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	0.06	8	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	1.8	30.3	14.7	24.3	2.5	26.2	128.6
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +54.5%

OKC -1.5%

OKC -4.1%

OKC -4.7%

DEN +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.5	13.4	14.4	140.0	128.3	113.0
season	14.2	13.8		117.1	117.4
opponent	14.7	14.5		105.6	114.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	14.0	14.7	17.8	15.5
OKC	11.4	13.7	16.0	12.8	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	54	54	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.31	7	6	1	15.4	15.7	-0.29	12.4	14.6	-2.26
Jamal Murray	84	82	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.07	14	-1	15	15.3	16.6	-1.24	13.6	12.6	1.00
Jalen Pickett	37	39	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	4	5	15.5	15.5	0.03	12.6	13.9	-1.36
Zeke Nnaji	24	26	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.07	9	4	5	14.7	15.8	-1.12	12.5	13.7	-1.24
Michael Porter Jr.	81	80	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	3	7	15.0	17.8	-2.80	13.5	13.0	0.51
Nikola Jokic	81	79	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.00	8	5	3	15.9	14.0	1.88	13.7	12.3	1.33
Christian Braun	73	71	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	7	-1	15.8	14.7	1.07	13.7	12.6	1.08
Russell Westbrook	66	64	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	11	-9	16.1	14.4	1.63	14.1	12.1	2.05

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Williams	30	30	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.05	8	-21	29	11.6	14.2	-2.56	15.5	15.5	-0.08
Dillon Jones	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	9.5	13.5	-3.99	21.7	15.3	6.34
Ousmane Dieng	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	9.5	13.5	-3.99	21.7	15.3	6.34
Isaiah Hartenstein	52	55	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-14	15	13.0	13.9	-0.87	16.1	14.8	1.39
Jaylin Williams	19	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-10	7	15.0	13.0	1.96	16.1	15.4	0.72
Isaiah Joe	33	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.25	4	-17	21	12.8	13.7	-0.98	16.6	15.0	1.67
Cason Wallace	62	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-7	1	13.3	13.6	-0.29	15.2	16.1	-0.90
Luguentz Dort	70	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-5	-3	13.7	12.8	0.88	15.5	15.5	0.08
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	74	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	5	-23	14.0	11.8	2.21	15.5	15.6	-0.16
Aaron Wiggins	45	46	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	-4	-5	13.4	13.4	0.01	14.8	16.2	-1.41
Chet Holmgren	62	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.04	-20	7	-27	13.6	13.1	0.49	15.1	16.2	-1.17
Alex Caruso	44	41	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.02	-20	7	-27	13.8	13.1	0.73	14.7	16.1	-1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.69,0.7,0.49,0.42,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.19,0.06,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 109, SAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.38,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.0%
DAL 107, MIA 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.77,0.82,0.73,0.76,0.7,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.27,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.01,0	92.2%
PHI 104, POR 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	92.1%