NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	107		Excitement	7.0 [443]		MVP	Davis Bertans (DAL): +21.4%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	4.8 [150]		LVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): -18.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Davis Bertans	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.08	-0.03	8	71%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	-0.00	9	78%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.03	10	68%	0.16	1	-0.04	8	75%	0.00
Josh Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Jalen Brunson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.02	14	58%	0.08	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01
Frank Ntilikina	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.08
Luka Doncic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	19	42%	-0.01	3	-0.10	12	75%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	18	58%	0.16	2	-0.05	14	93%	0.08
Omer Yurtseven	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	61%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	4	44%	-0.00	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	8	65%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.08	0.04	19	52%	-0.02	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-0.02	9	20%	-0.09	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	127.8	15.6	29.1	1.7	38.2	240.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +60.7%

MIA -7.2%

MIA -15.1%

DAL +12.0%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	15.4	14.5	118.9	108.8	110.8
season	15.6	14.9		112.4	112.0
opponent	14.9	14.5		107.6	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.1	16.2	15.8	17.5	16.4
MIA	15.2	15.8	16.9	14.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Brunson	72	74	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.28	12	-4	16	16.3	16.6	-0.28	15.7	14.2	1.55
Maxi Kleber	68	65	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-5	18	16.0	17.5	-1.41	16.0	14.1	1.85
Davis Bertans	26	26	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	-1	10	15.2	16.9	-1.74	15.5	15.4	0.08
Luka Doncic	72	73	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.18	3	5	-2	16.4	16.2	0.21	15.0	17.3	-2.36
Spencer Dinwiddie	43	45	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.33	-3	11	-14	17.5	15.4	2.11	13.6	17.2	-3.64
Dwight Powell	46	49	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	6	-4	16.6	16.2	0.36	15.2	15.7	-0.55
Frank Ntilikina	7	6	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.06	6	2	4	11.9	16.8	-4.91	20.3	15.1	5.24
Sterling Brown	13	11	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	6	-4	14.9	16.6	-1.71	17.5	15.2	2.29
Dorian Finney-Smith	66	68	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.21	-6	14	-20	17.0	14.6	2.41	15.5	15.3	0.24
Josh Green	37	38	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	6	-4	16.6	16.2	0.44	15.9	15.1	0.74

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	71	70	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.19	4	-12	16	15.5	15.1	0.44	16.9	14.5	2.43
Duncan Robinson	36	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-6	4	16.9	14.5	2.49	17.4	15.7	1.70
Bam Adebayo	60	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-8	8	15.5	15.2	0.32	17.1	15.0	2.03
Haywood Highsmith	31	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-7	6	15.7	15.3	0.46	15.0	17.1	-2.17
Max Strus	39	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	-4	0	14.8	15.9	-1.04	15.6	17.0	-1.43
Omer Yurtseven	31	30	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	0	-8	15.2	15.5	-0.32	15.0	17.1	-2.03
P.J. Tucker	57	56	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	1	-10	15.4	15.6	-0.19	16.7	15.9	0.72
Gabe Vincent	58	55	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.34	-6	-2	-4	14.7	16.8	-2.16	16.8	15.7	1.06
Kyle Lowry	72	72	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.17	-14	6	-20	15.5	15.3	0.16	15.9	18.4	-2.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.77,0.82,0.73,0.76,0.7,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.27,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 95, ORL 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.6,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.28,0.03,0,0	93.1%
LAC 102, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.46,0.3,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.27,0.26,0.06,0.03,0.09,0	93.1%
NJN 84, ATL 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	92.8%