NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	6.7 [489]		MVP	Jalen Williams (OKC): +17.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	127		Comeback	2.2 [824]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -11.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.07	-0.02	19	60%	0.22	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Braun	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	15	61%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Aaron Gordon	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	3	71%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jalen Pickett	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hunter Tyson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	17	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	9	20%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	23	46%	-0.07	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.09

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.07	0.03	14	67%	0.19	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.05
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.07	0.08	32	56%	0.15	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.05
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	-0.00	5	73%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	10	67%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	6	83%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	5	42%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	4	62%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ousmane Dieng	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	27.5	14.6	28.7	3.4	32.2	137.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +14.1%

OKC +32.5%

DEN -15.6%

OKC +16.0%

OKC +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.1	13.7	14.4	103.0	127.0	113.1
season	14.0	13.7		118.4	118.5
opponent	14.7	14.6		105.8	114.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	13.6	15.7	18.1	15.1
OKC	14.4	13.6	13.1	13.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	15	15	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.02	4	-28	32	14.1	15.2	-1.18	14.1	13.7	0.47
Vlatko Cancar	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-22	20	26.0	15.0	11.04	14.0	13.7	0.28
Hunter Tyson	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-22	20	26.0	15.0	11.04	14.0	13.7	0.28
Spencer Jones	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-22	20	26.0	15.0	11.04	14.0	13.7	0.28
Peyton Watson	15	16	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	-14	4	12.5	15.5	-2.98	10.2	14.4	-4.14
Zeke Nnaji	49	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-16	8	15.3	14.8	0.50	12.6	14.8	-2.17
Christian Braun	64	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	-11	-2	15.4	14.5	0.85	14.8	11.7	3.09
Nikola Jokic	84	85	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.15	-13	-11	-2	14.8	16.2	-1.40	14.4	10.1	4.31
Jalen Pickett	34	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-17	10	15.9	14.6	1.32	13.9	13.7	0.25
Jamal Murray	88	87	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	-7	-10	15.0	15.7	-0.68	14.0	11.9	2.08
Russell Westbrook	63	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	-7	-10	15.1	15.0	0.11	14.0	13.2	0.86
Michael Porter Jr.	85	85	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	0.28	-33	9	-42	14.9	16.3	-1.41	12.9	18.6	-5.73

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chet Holmgren	52	56	0.73	-0.23	0.95	-0.21	32	-8	40	13.9	13.5	0.36	16.3	13.5	2.76
Alex Caruso	33	35	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	13	-2	12.8	14.2	-1.41	16.2	14.5	1.69
Jalen Williams	81	80	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.05	17	7	10	13.7	13.8	-0.07	15.4	13.8	1.53
Cason Wallace	38	39	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	13	-2	11.1	15.3	-4.23	15.1	15.0	0.10
Aaron Wiggins	42	43	0.28	0.21	0.07	-0.07	12	12	0	11.4	15.4	-4.09	14.3	15.6	-1.31
Jaylin Williams	21	19	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	12	0	12.9	14.0	-1.10	14.8	15.1	-0.35
Luguentz Dort	60	60	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.22	11	13	-2	15.4	11.2	4.13	14.8	15.4	-0.55
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	73	73	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.23	11	13	-2	14.7	11.2	3.49	14.5	16.6	-2.09
Kenrich Williams	9	7	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.10	5	19	-14	9.4	14.2	-4.71	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Ousmane Dieng	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	22	-20	14.0	13.7	0.28	26.0	15.0	11.04
Isaiah Hartenstein	64	63	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.14	2	22	-20	14.7	12.0	2.66	15.0	15.3	-0.32
Isaiah Joe	25	24	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.03	-6	30	-36	15.7	13.1	2.65	13.2	15.7	-2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.67,0.72,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 104, CLE 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.83,0.67,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.89,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%
TOR 93, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.0%
DET 89, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.91,0.87,0.91,0.83,0.89,0.94,1,1,1	92.4%