NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	120		Excitement	8.6 [213]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +51.6%
Miami Heat	125		Comeback	4.1 [211]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -8.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.46	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.22,0.56,0.46,0.46	0.27	0.23	0.03	21	78%	0.55	1	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Tyrese Haliburton	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.3,0.22	0.09	0.12	-0.01	15	63%	0.30	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.16	-0.01	0.01	12	79%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Nesmith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	87%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarace Walker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Sheppard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	7	64%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.4,0.52,0.52	0.52	0.17	0.33	-0.02	10	100%	0.57	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.24	0.24	-0.01	0.24	-0.01	7	62%	0.34	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.05	0.02	14	64%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	6	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	4	110%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	72%	0.16	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	80%	0.09	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.12,-0.08	-0.08	0.08	-0.14	0.02	25	53%	-0.00	1	-0.08	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	27.5	15.5	25.4	2.3	30.6	126.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.0%

MIA +15.8%

MIA +21.0%

IND -9.0%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	16.2	14.4	129.0	134.4	113.1
season	13.8	14.9		115.1	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.7		111.2	112.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.6	15.0	14.0	14.5	14.8
MIA	18.7	15.7	13.7	17.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarace Walker	13	12	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.02	-1	-4	3	18.2	14.2	3.95	15.9	16.3	-0.34
Obi Toppin	30	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.14	3	-8	11	14.8	14.7	0.02	14.9	16.9	-2.02
Aaron Nesmith	67	69	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.26	4	-9	13	13.9	16.9	-3.01	17.2	13.3	3.88
Tyrese Haliburton	70	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-8	11	14.1	16.7	-2.64	16.3	16.0	0.34
Thomas Bryant	25	26	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	1	-7	14.8	14.7	0.01	14.4	16.9	-2.54
Myles Turner	68	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.28	1	-6	7	14.7	14.8	-0.01	16.9	14.4	2.54
Andrew Nembhard	73	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.29	1	-6	7	13.8	18.1	-4.33	16.4	15.4	1.00
T.J. McConnell	26	25	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	3	-11	16.7	14.0	2.64	15.1	16.6	-1.50
Pascal Siakam	63	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	3	-11	14.7	14.8	-0.02	16.9	14.9	2.02
Ben Sheppard	30	28	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	9	-23	17.3	13.5	3.76	14.1	17.1	-3.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kel'el Ware	55	53	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.45	7	-2	9	16.1	16.4	-0.26	14.9	14.6	0.31
Duncan Robinson	55	53	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.45	0	5	-5	16.1	16.4	-0.30	15.6	13.7	1.89
Tyler Herro	64	65	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.17	8	-3	11	16.7	15.1	1.62	14.6	15.1	-0.46
Alec Burks	42	43	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.02	12	-7	19	15.3	17.0	-1.69	13.7	15.7	-2.01
Davion Mitchell	70	72	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	-1	7	16.6	15.2	1.38	14.4	15.8	-1.37
Haywood Highsmith	58	57	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	3	-1	15.6	17.3	-1.67	15.2	14.1	1.14
Terry Rozier	23	21	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.19	-1	6	-7	15.2	16.6	-1.38	15.8	14.4	1.37
Bam Adebayo	59	61	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	7	-9	16.9	15.0	1.92	14.7	14.9	-0.28
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	27	28	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	6	-7	16.9	15.9	1.00	13.6	15.2	-1.64
Kyle Anderson	12	12	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.05	-6	11	-17	15.8	16.3	-0.44	16.2	14.5	1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.41,0.5,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 83, MIA 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.51,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.43,0.58,1	90.8%
OKC 94, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.29,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.46,0.6,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.58,1	90.8%
ORL 92, LAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.68,0.58,1	90.0%