NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	83		Excitement	8.5 [179]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +17.2%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	3.2 [593]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -38.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	7	72%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Maceo Baston	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Bradley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mamadou N'diaye	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.02	8	65%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.02
Morris Peterson	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	13	35%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.14	0.01	-0.16	-0.02	12	62%	-0.08	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Rafer Alston	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	10	15%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21	-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	18	38%	-0.13	4	-0.09	3	33%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	11	67%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.07	0.07	-0.08	0.15	-0.00	4	58%	0.18	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	71%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	6	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ken Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Sean Lampley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	10	41%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	4	30%	-0.08	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.11	-0.02	12	42%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.42,-0.39	-0.39	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	14	37%	-0.30	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.4	30.8	16.6	21.7	2.4	32.6	128.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.4%

MIA +8.8%

MIA +10.8%

MIA +5.5%

MIA +8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	14.9	15.5	90.2	96.7	101.6
season	16.2	16.3		98.8	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.3		100.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	15.0	17.3	19.2	16.4
MIA	16.7	14.4	12.7	16.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Bradley	41	42	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-7	8	16.1	16.7	-0.59	15.1	14.7	0.40
Maceo Baston	5	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-3	0	18.8	16.3	2.51	12.8	15.0	-2.19
Mamadou N'diaye	25	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-6	6	16.6	16.4	0.24	16.3	14.4	1.92
Morris Peterson	73	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-8	10	16.4	16.6	-0.20	15.3	13.3	1.97
Rafer Alston	38	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.02	-12	6	-18	16.8	16.2	0.58	15.4	14.6	0.79
Jerome Williams	46	44	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-2	-2	16.5	16.4	0.07	15.0	14.8	0.14
Chris Jefferies	87	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-2	-2	16.5	15.4	1.08	14.8	15.6	-0.76
Jelani McCoy	67	67	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	0	-6	16.4	16.6	-0.24	14.4	16.3	-1.92
Alvin Williams	78	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-2	-2	16.2	17.5	-1.27	14.3	18.2	-3.90

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	47	47	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.31	15	-9	24	13.3	16.6	-3.28	16.8	16.0	0.74
Anthony Carter	58	58	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-5	16	14.2	16.0	-1.78	16.3	16.6	-0.31
Rasual Butler	61	60	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-6	18	14.1	16.5	-2.37	16.1	17.0	-0.88
Caron Butler	63	63	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	4	-2	14.4	15.8	-1.38	16.4	16.4	0.01
Brian Grant	61	59	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.32	-2	8	-10	15.2	14.2	1.04	15.9	17.4	-1.51
Sean Lampley	31	32	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.00	5	1	4	15.5	14.6	0.96	16.8	16.2	0.55
Vladimir Stepania	27	26	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	3	0	15.6	14.6	1.01	18.8	15.5	3.32
Malik Allen	37	37	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	7	-8	16.0	14.1	1.92	16.1	16.7	-0.62
Ken Johnson	10	12	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	10	-14	14.9	14.9	0.02	12.7	17.0	-4.32
Mike James	31	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.04	-6	12	-18	16.5	14.1	2.37	17.0	16.1	0.88
Travis Best	34	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.01	-5	11	-16	16.0	14.2	1.78	16.6	16.3	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.51,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 83, CHA 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.77,0.64,0.53,0.66,0.75,0.55,0.43,0.41,1	91.7%
CHI 86, WAS 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.63,0.57,0.73,1	91.6%
WAS 102, BOS 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.2,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.57,0.42,1	91.3%