NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	120		Excitement	9.6 [114]		MVP	RJ Barrett (TOR): +59.4%
Toronto Raptors	111		Comeback	6.1 [278]		LVP	Scottie Barnes (TOR): -12.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.46	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.47,0.46,0.46	0.15	0.30	-0.01	18	70%	0.54	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Andrew Wiggins	0.20	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.04	0.18	0.02	19	57%	0.35	3	-0.14	6	83%	0.10
Duncan Robinson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.09	0.00	9	70%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Davion Mitchell	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.02	-0.00	9	80%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.05
Nikola Jovic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	7	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.04	0.01	13	63%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.33,0.33,0.46,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.59	0.59	0.21	0.41	0.02	17	76%	0.61	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.06
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.15,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.10	0.01	21	51%	0.17	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Ja'Kobe Walter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Shead	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Gradey Dick	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.08	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jonathan Mogbo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	8	56%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ochai Agbaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.14	-0.01	12	46%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.4	2.3	24.3	14.8	28.5	2.3	26.6	2.5	9.2	138.8
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	2.3	15.6	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.5%

MIA +8.8%

TOR -3.0%

TOR -6.4%

MIA +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.9	15.0	14.4	116.5	107.8	113.1
season	15.0	13.9		111.5	109.0
opponent	14.6	14.6		113.0	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	14.4	18.4	13.9	17.0	16.7	15.9
TOR	14.4	13.7	14.3	17.3	16.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Wiggins	81	81	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	1	7	15.9	15.6	0.34	15.5	13.2	2.34
Nikola Jovic	68	67	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.30	6	3	3	15.5	16.5	-1.04	15.6	14.0	1.61
Tyler Herro	80	79	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.06	13	-4	17	15.6	16.6	-0.97	14.5	16.8	-2.36
Davion Mitchell	68	66	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.17	6	3	3	15.9	15.7	0.26	14.3	16.4	-2.12
Bam Adebayo	67	68	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	6	-3	16.9	14.0	2.85	15.7	13.7	2.06
Kyle Anderson	21	22	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	5	-1	14.1	16.3	-2.15	14.5	15.1	-0.60
Kel'el Ware	44	43	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.13	9	0	9	15.3	16.3	-0.98	14.3	15.5	-1.19
Duncan Robinson	46	47	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	11	-13	14.8	16.7	-1.98	15.3	14.8	0.47
Alec Burks	12	12	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	9	-9	19.7	15.4	4.32	10.5	15.6	-5.12
Terry Rozier	28	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	11	-13	16.9	15.5	1.38	16.7	14.3	2.37

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Shead	32	31	0.28	-0.78	1.05	0.16	4	-13	17	14.7	15.2	-0.48	17.3	15.2	2.10
Orlando Robinson	60	62	0.24	-0.74	0.97	0.18	2	-11	13	14.7	15.5	-0.84	16.0	15.6	0.37
Chris Boucher	28	25	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.01	6	-15	21	16.1	14.6	1.44	16.8	15.6	1.20
Ochai Agbaji	37	35	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	14.6	15.3	-0.66	14.3	16.6	-2.29
RJ Barrett	74	76	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-8	7	14.4	16.5	-2.08	16.1	15.1	1.06
Gradey Dick	66	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-4	-1	14.5	15.9	-1.32	16.0	15.6	0.43
Ja'Kobe Walter	33	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-7	5	16.6	14.3	2.33	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Jonathan Mogbo	38	35	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.38	-11	2	-13	16.2	14.3	1.93	15.1	16.2	-1.16
Immanuel Quickley	75	76	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.38	-15	6	-21	14.8	15.5	-0.66	15.4	17.1	-1.65
Scottie Barnes	72	75	-1.07	0.57	-1.64	-0.34	-25	16	-41	15.1	14.8	0.35	16.1	15.3	0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.28,0.27,0.28,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.17,0.29,0.39,0.32,0.54,0.45,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 123, GSW 117	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.1,0.01,0	90.2%
NYK 89, GSW 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.74,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.15,0	89.7%
WAS 114, MIL 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.47,0.16,0.23,0.73,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.06,0.01,0	89.2%