NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

LA Clippers	110		Excitement	8.3 [170]		MVP	Brook Lopez (MIL): +24.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	116		Comeback	14.7 [50]		LVP	James Harden (LAC): -10.6%

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.13	0.08	0.08	0.04	10	68%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ivica Zubac	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	13	65%	0.17	2	-0.09	5	80%	0.00
Ben Simmons	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.08	-0.00	22	53%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Amir Coffey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kris Dunn	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	21	49%	0.08	5	-0.18	7	86%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.10	-0.00	14	73%	0.32	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Taurean Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.02	9	70%	0.21	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.00	7	76%	0.14	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	14	70%	0.16	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	57%	0.12	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.03
Jericho Sims	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	0.02	12	44%	0.05	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.03
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	0.8	23.6	14.6	31.6	2.6	41.2	140.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +31.6%

MIL +25.2%

LAC -5.1%

LAC -0.1%

LAC -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MIL	NBA	LAC	MIL	NBA
this game	15.2	13.9	14.4	111.1	117.2	112.6
season	14.8	14.4		110.8	112.9
opponent	14.2	14.1		111.3	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	16.1	14.6	12.7	17.9	15.2
MIL	13.9	13.6	14.0	14.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	24	25	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-8	10	14.0	15.5	-1.51	12.1	14.5	-2.45
Kawhi Leonard	64	65	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-10	14	16.0	13.7	2.31	14.5	12.7	1.83
Derrick Jones Jr.	42	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.13	-10	4	-14	15.4	15.0	0.43	14.1	13.8	0.36
Ben Simmons	44	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.09	-9	3	-12	14.7	15.5	-0.78	14.0	13.9	0.07
Amir Coffey	62	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-8	10	15.1	15.3	-0.23	13.8	14.1	-0.23
Kris Dunn	62	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-8	10	15.0	15.5	-0.53	13.7	14.4	-0.72
Bogdan Bogdanovic	42	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	5	-16	14.9	15.4	-0.52	13.5	14.2	-0.66
James Harden	80	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-4	2	15.0	15.9	-0.88	13.7	14.6	-0.89
Ivica Zubac	75	74	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.36	-8	2	-10	15.5	14.0	1.51	14.5	12.1	2.45

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
AJ Green	62	62	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.24	18	-12	30	13.9	13.9	0.07	15.1	15.2	-0.10
Kyle Kuzma	78	77	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.38	6	0	6	13.6	15.0	-1.45	15.3	14.8	0.47
Taurean Prince	64	64	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	5	-4	13.8	14.1	-0.23	14.9	15.7	-0.82
Damian Lillard	68	68	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.47	-2	8	-10	14.0	13.7	0.24	14.7	16.2	-1.43
Brook Lopez	64	62	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.47	-3	9	-12	13.8	14.1	-0.23	15.1	15.3	-0.18
Jericho Sims	35	37	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.15	9	-3	12	14.1	13.8	0.23	15.3	15.1	0.18
Kevin Porter Jr.	31	31	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.14	8	-2	10	13.7	14.0	-0.24	16.2	14.7	1.43
Giannis Antetokounmpo	47	47	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	7	-8	14.6	13.3	1.23	16.5	14.0	2.45
Gary Trent Jr.	46	47	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.07	-6	12	-18	13.8	14.0	-0.11	14.2	16.1	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.81,0.8,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.47,0.69,0.45,0.72,0.95,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 110, SAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.41,0.35,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.67,0.98,1	89.8%
NYK 114, MEM 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.52,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.19,0.04,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.6,0.4,0.53,0.64,0.95,0.99,1	89.1%
MEM 129, LAC 135	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.18,0.28,0.44,0.64,0.94,0.96,1	88.9%