NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	116		Excitement	8.2 [266]		MVP	Miles Bridges (CHA): +92.4%
Charlotte Hornets	117		Comeback	5.8 [165]		LVP	Moussa Diabate (CHA): -17.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0.43	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.43	0.10	0.34	0.01	17	58%	0.43	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Stephon Castle	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.1,0.1	0.22	-0.06	0.06	15	80%	0.32	4	-0.22	11	91%	0.05
Chris Paul	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	9	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Vassell	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	13	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Jeremy Sochan	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.02	8	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Julian Champagnie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	20	39%	-0.01	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.92	0.92	0.15	0.76	-0.01	18	66%	0.92	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Nick Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.01	13	70%	0.15	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.00	8	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tidjane Salaun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
KJ Simpson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.11	-0.04	26	44%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
DaQuan Jeffries	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	9	22%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Moussa Diabate	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.15	0.00	10	43%	-0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	27.0	14.4	25.4	2.5	42.8	140.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +25.2%

SAS -8.7%

CHA +15.1%

CHA +0.9%

CHA +17.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHA	NBA	SAS	CHA	NBA
this game	13.0	16.5	14.4	116.0	121.9	113.1
season	14.2	15.0		113.0	106.2
opponent	14.2	14.5		115.2	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.5	14.2	14.2	11.1	13.0
CHA	17.0	14.6	15.8	18.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Vassell	72	68	0.60	-1.10	1.71	0.05	19	-20	39	12.4	14.5	-2.05	17.1	15.0	2.07
Harrison Barnes	45	43	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	2	-5	14.3	11.9	2.40	16.4	16.5	-0.05
Keldon Johnson	34	34	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	4	-9	11.7	13.7	-1.99	16.1	16.7	-0.63
Stephon Castle	67	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.49	7	-8	15	11.9	15.2	-3.36	16.7	16.0	0.71
Julian Champagnie	38	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	8	-17	15.2	11.6	3.54	14.8	17.7	-2.90
Victor Wembanyama	72	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	0	-1	12.7	13.9	-1.20	16.5	16.4	0.14
De'Aaron Fox	67	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.28	-7	6	-13	13.4	12.2	1.12	16.7	16.0	0.67
Chris Paul	57	53	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.39	-5	4	-9	14.3	11.3	3.00	15.9	17.2	-1.30
Jeremy Sochan	48	47	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.67	-1	0	-1	11.8	14.1	-2.26	17.3	15.7	1.67

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Seth Curry	44	45	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.72	7	-6	13	16.3	16.6	-0.28	12.5	13.4	-0.91
Miles Bridges	67	72	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	-6	13	16.5	16.4	0.13	13.1	12.7	0.43
Nick Smith Jr.	67	71	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	-2	5	16.3	16.9	-0.66	13.3	12.3	0.91
LaMelo Ball	74	77	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	-7	15	16.5	16.2	0.31	12.7	13.8	-1.09
Taj Gibson	29	28	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	-3	7	16.6	16.4	0.12	11.7	13.5	-1.72
Tidjane Salaun	38	40	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.51	-10	11	-21	16.6	16.4	0.23	11.0	14.3	-3.23
DaQuan Jeffries	58	60	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.05	2	-1	3	16.3	16.7	-0.44	14.7	10.4	4.32
KJ Simpson	38	39	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.26	-12	13	-25	16.8	16.3	0.53	11.9	13.7	-1.75
Moussa Diabate	65	68	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	-0.26	-4	5	-9	16.5	16.4	0.12	13.9	11.0	2.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.86,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.88,0.82,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.76,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.96,0.81,0.73,0.9,0.64,0.68,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 83, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.78,0.84,0.98,1	93.4%
ORL 85, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.69,0.55,0.57,0.91,1	92.7%
ORL 99, DET 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.6,0.8,0.85,0.76,0.72,1	92.4%