NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	7.5 [379]		MVP	Nikola Jovic (MIA): +24.7%
Philadelphia 76ers	101		Comeback	1.4 [568]		LVP	Guerschon Yabusele (PHI): -13.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jovic	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.18	0.07	0.00	9	100%	0.34	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Terry Rozier	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	17	56%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pelle Larsson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.02	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	20	68%	0.21	7	-0.17	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Love	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Haywood Highsmith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	16	53%	0.08	7	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	4	125%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adem Bona	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.00	5	79%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	28	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Justin Edwards	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	8	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul George	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	11	41%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Council IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	9	28%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	16	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Guerschon Yabusele	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.10	0.01	8	50%	-0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	1.8	26.2	15.3	23.5	5.5	35.5	137.7
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +56.9%

MIA +6.0%

MIA +25.7%

PHI -39.8%

MIA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	14.6	14.6	14.4	109.1	103.1	113.0
season	15.0	15.0		111.5	110.4
opponent	14.2	14.6		116.8	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	13.8	13.8	15.7	14.6
PHI	14.1	14.5	14.5	15.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	76	75	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-7	21	14.1	16.4	-2.34	14.3	15.8	-1.55
Nikola Jovic	75	73	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	2	3	14.8	14.1	0.68	14.9	13.9	0.97
Pelle Larsson	43	43	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	0	7	14.6	14.6	-0.03	15.3	14.1	1.22
Bam Adebayo	68	68	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	2	3	15.4	12.9	2.51	15.0	13.8	1.26
Haywood Highsmith	42	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	2	3	15.5	14.0	1.49	15.0	14.4	0.61
Terry Rozier	55	55	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	9	-11	15.3	13.7	1.52	14.7	14.5	0.19
Kel'el Ware	41	41	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	2	3	12.6	16.0	-3.35	13.9	15.2	-1.23
Kevin Love	14	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	8	-9	15.6	14.4	1.22	13.6	14.8	-1.25
Duncan Robinson	43	41	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	8	-9	15.2	14.2	1.00	14.3	14.9	-0.56
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	38	39	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	9	-11	13.1	15.5	-2.38	14.4	14.8	-0.34

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	24	23	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.03	7	-14	21	14.6	14.7	-0.08	14.7	14.6	0.07
Adem Bona	33	34	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.14	9	-16	25	15.6	14.1	1.50	16.5	13.6	2.86
Ricky Council IV	9	9	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-11	15	16.6	14.4	2.11	12.2	14.8	-2.61
Kyle Lowry	29	27	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-11	15	14.7	14.6	0.07	14.4	14.7	-0.26
Eric Gordon	51	52	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.34	10	-17	27	14.7	14.6	0.17	15.8	13.2	2.59
Justin Edwards	51	52	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	10	-27	14.9	14.4	0.46	13.8	15.5	-1.66
Paul George	67	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.18	-12	5	-17	14.4	15.2	-0.85	14.3	15.4	-1.11
Kelly Oubre Jr.	82	84	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	2	-11	14.6	14.6	0.02	15.0	12.2	2.82
Guerschon Yabusele	65	65	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.15	-16	9	-25	14.1	15.6	-1.50	13.6	16.5	-2.86
Tyrese Maxey	79	80	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.28	-15	8	-23	14.5	15.4	-0.97	14.5	15.2	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 101, VAN 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.07,0.13,0.02,0.01,0	93.6%
CLE 97, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.1%
BKN 105, CHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.35,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.25,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.21,0.06,0.04,0	92.9%