NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	10.3 [48]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +56.4%
San Antonio Spurs	103		Comeback	2.8 [477]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -47.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.56	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.17,0.56	0.15	0.43	0.01	21	68%	0.67	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15	0.01	0.13	-0.00	6	50%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.02	-0.00	14	63%	0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Duncan Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.05	0.00	6	57%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	9	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	56%	0.04	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03
Nikola Jovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11	0.04	-0.15	0.00	10	64%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Herro	-0.47	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.08,-0.23,-0.13,-0.19,-0.47	-0.15	-0.31	0.01	15	31%	-0.32	3	-0.15	5	60%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	7	71%	0.18	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.29,0.29,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.00	6	77%	0.22	1	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	9	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.06
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	10	70%	-0.04
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Bassey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Tre Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Vassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.14	0.01	22	40%	-0.14	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.4	29.8	13.8	21.5	2.4	31.9	129.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.6%

SAS -16.8%

MIA +38.2%

SAS -11.1%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	14.6	14.7	14.4	106.1	105.1	113.1
season	14.9	14.2		111.9	113.0
opponent	14.5	14.6		115.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	13.2	14.8	16.2	14.6
SAS	13.4	16.3	15.9	13.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	76	77	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.62	5	-3	8	14.9	13.5	1.39	14.3	16.0	-1.65
Tyler Herro	74	73	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.45	3	-1	4	15.0	13.4	1.53	14.7	14.6	0.02
Duncan Robinson	54	54	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	1	0	14.8	14.3	0.46	15.3	13.8	1.47
Nikola Jovic	53	54	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	-1	4	14.0	15.2	-1.22	13.9	15.5	-1.62
Terry Rozier	70	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	0	2	14.0	16.0	-1.95	13.9	16.5	-2.54
Haywood Highsmith	47	46	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	1	0	15.1	14.1	1.07	14.7	14.7	-0.00
Kel'el Ware	68	64	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	0	2	15.4	12.9	2.45	15.7	12.7	3.03
Pelle Larsson	3	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	4	-6	11.7	14.7	-3.01	14.0	14.7	-0.67
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	50	49	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.15	-5	7	-12	13.3	15.9	-2.60	15.0	14.3	0.65

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephon Castle	45	47	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.07	9	-11	20	15.2	14.2	0.97	14.9	14.3	0.67
Sandro Mamukelashvili	19	20	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.02	6	-8	14	13.6	14.9	-1.33	14.3	14.6	-0.30
Julian Champagnie	37	37	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.42	16	-18	34	12.1	16.2	-4.18	15.1	14.3	0.75
Harrison Barnes	54	58	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.13	-3	1	-4	15.7	13.4	2.34	14.9	14.1	0.79
Tre Jones	31	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.07	-4	2	-6	14.5	14.7	-0.20	12.8	15.4	-2.54
Zach Collins	20	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	0	-2	13.7	14.9	-1.13	12.3	15.1	-2.82
Jeremy Sochan	42	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	4	-10	14.4	14.9	-0.48	13.2	15.6	-2.38
Devin Vassell	70	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-1	0	15.3	12.9	2.41	14.8	14.0	0.87
Chris Paul	63	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.45	-4	2	-6	14.8	14.4	0.35	15.5	13.0	2.49
Keldon Johnson	57	55	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.59	-3	1	-4	13.5	16.2	-2.69	14.4	14.8	-0.42
Charles Bassey	52	53	-1.06	0.56	-1.62	-0.53	-18	16	-34	16.2	13.0	3.20	15.4	13.7	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 97, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.46,0.33,0.26,0	93.6%
BKN 119, MIL 116	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.66,0.54,0.54,0.2,0.37,0	92.3%
PHI 93, DAL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.32,0.41,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.22,0.15,0	91.6%