NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	8.1 [270]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +34.3%
Charlotte Hornets	104		Comeback	27.2 [107]		LVP	KJ Simpson (CHA): -22.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.12,-0.02,-0.02,0.34	0.09	0.25	-0.00	17	65%	0.55	4	-0.20	9	89%	0.14
Christian Braun	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.18	-0.01	0.01	15	71%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.00	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	16	57%	0.14	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Jalen Pickett	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	14	47%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	17	53%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Smith Jr.	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05	0.05	0.14	-0.07	0.02	12	79%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DaQuan Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moussa Diabate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	57%	0.06	3	-0.08	3	0%	-0.05
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.02,0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	23	48%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Isaiah Wong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vasilije Micic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
KJ Simpson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22	-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	-0.00	9	36%	-0.07	2	-0.16	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.7	24.5	14.7	24.6	2.5	34.4	129.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +25.0%

DEN +37.8%

CHA -17.1%

DEN +2.2%

DEN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHA	NBA	DEN	CHA	NBA
this game	13.3	15.6	14.4	108.1	104.0	113.1
season	14.0	15.0		118.4	106.2
opponent	14.2	14.6		115.2	114.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.1	13.6	13.8	15.0	13.3
CHA	16.0	15.2	14.4	16.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	62	64	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.21	21	-18	39	13.0	13.9	-0.99	16.0	14.9	1.08
Christian Braun	79	80	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-6	15	13.1	14.1	-1.04	15.7	15.3	0.33
Michael Porter Jr.	85	87	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-9	21	13.1	14.6	-1.54	15.4	17.2	-1.77
Jamal Murray	71	71	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.45	0	3	-3	13.1	13.8	-0.69	14.9	17.3	-2.35
Nikola Jokic	77	78	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.50	-2	5	-7	12.9	14.9	-2.04	15.2	17.2	-2.07
Jalen Pickett	28	29	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	0	3	13.8	13.1	0.69	17.3	14.9	2.35
Julian Strawther	48	47	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.19	-11	14	-25	14.4	12.3	2.16	16.1	15.2	0.94
Zeke Nnaji	45	44	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	0.12	-17	20	-37	14.2	12.6	1.61	15.7	15.6	0.09

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Moussa Diabate	44	42	0.34	-0.84	1.17	-0.25	20	-23	43	14.7	16.3	-1.66	14.1	12.7	1.38
Seth Curry	44	42	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.32	20	-23	43	14.7	16.3	-1.66	14.1	12.7	1.38
DaQuan Jeffries	26	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.11	3	-6	9	16.9	15.1	1.77	12.6	13.6	-0.95
Isaiah Wong	22	22	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	2	-7	17.2	15.2	2.07	14.9	12.9	2.04
KJ Simpson	57	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.56	16	-19	35	15.1	16.3	-1.17	13.1	13.6	-0.56
Miles Bridges	74	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-1	-1	15.1	17.0	-1.88	12.7	15.0	-2.25
Vasilije Micic	32	32	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.22	-24	21	-45	16.5	15.2	1.26	12.5	13.7	-1.22
Josh Green	66	64	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.26	-10	7	-17	15.9	15.1	0.84	14.0	12.1	1.87
Nick Smith Jr.	70	70	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.30	-14	11	-25	15.6	15.7	-0.13	13.0	14.1	-1.10
Mark Williams	65	66	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.22	-19	16	-35	16.1	14.7	1.47	13.0	13.9	-0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.2,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.4,0.26,0.37,0.57,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 109, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.38,0.36,0.65,0.73,0	93.2%
BOS 89, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.73,0	91.5%
SAC 84, HOU 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.24,0.27,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.19,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.42,0	90.9%