NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	121		Excitement	7.5 [389]		MVP	Lonzo Ball (CHI): +22.3%
Chicago Bulls	129		Comeback	5.0 [87]		LVP	Peyton Watson (DEN): -11.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.03	0.02	21	75%	0.27	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.19	-0.00	0.02	15	82%	0.24	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.1	0.03	0.05	-0.02	15	56%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	64%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	20	44%	0.01	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Peyton Watson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lonzo Ball	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.07	0.01	10	82%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dalen Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.05	0.00	6	108%	0.21	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	-0.00	13	70%	0.27	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Ayo Dosunmu	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.08	0.01	13	61%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Matas Buzelis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	90%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Phillips	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	12	46%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	42%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Talen Horton-Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Giddey	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	75%	0.09	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	23	43%	0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.0	24.3	14.7	25.2	1.7	28.2	117.8
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +63.8%

DEN -9.8%

CHI +3.5%

DEN -0.9%

DEN -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	14.0	12.9	14.4	113.1	120.6	113.0
season	14.2	13.2		117.1	112.4
opponent	14.5	14.5		114.2	114.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	14.1	14.8	13.9	14.0
CHI	12.4	12.6	11.9	14.9	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	76	77	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.12	6	-14	20	13.3	15.8	-2.45	13.9	10.3	3.58
Christian Braun	71	73	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-12	16	13.5	15.1	-1.66	14.0	10.4	3.62
Nikola Jokic	87	88	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-9	10	13.7	15.5	-1.80	13.2	11.2	2.03
Michael Porter Jr.	73	70	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.22	1	-9	10	13.8	14.6	-0.89	13.0	12.6	0.48
Peyton Watson	53	53	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.12	-12	4	-16	15.0	13.1	1.87	12.1	13.7	-1.63
Aaron Gordon	50	51	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	1	-10	14.7	13.5	1.24	11.8	13.8	-2.02
Julian Strawther	35	34	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.13	-15	7	-22	15.6	13.3	2.28	10.4	14.0	-3.62
Jamal Murray	90	89	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.26	-16	8	-24	14.1	13.6	0.46	12.6	14.2	-1.55

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ayo Dosunmu	75	77	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.20	20	-12	32	12.5	13.8	-1.33	14.0	14.1	-0.04
Patrick Williams	61	60	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.14	16	-8	24	12.8	13.0	-0.29	15.4	12.3	3.03
Matas Buzelis	48	48	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.23	10	-2	12	12.1	13.5	-1.33	13.9	14.2	-0.33
Dalen Terry	29	31	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-3	14	11.6	13.3	-1.73	14.0	14.1	-0.05
Jalen Smith	32	31	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.21	6	2	4	11.4	13.5	-2.10	14.7	13.7	0.99
Lonzo Ball	53	51	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	6	-4	13.9	11.9	2.00	14.4	13.7	0.72
Nikola Vucevic	75	76	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	6	-4	13.5	11.4	2.10	13.7	14.7	-0.99
Talen Horton-Tucker	11	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	14	-20	9.7	13.2	-3.51	16.3	13.8	2.51
Julian Phillips	12	14	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	11	-14	12.7	12.9	-0.24	12.9	14.2	-1.36
Zach LaVine	78	77	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.13	-10	18	-28	13.6	10.9	2.77	13.4	15.6	-2.17
Josh Giddey	61	61	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	16	-24	13.4	12.1	1.31	13.3	15.0	-1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.2,0.21,0.27,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.62,0.75,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.86,0.96,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 109, DEN 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.99,1	93.4%
MIL 86, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.0%
SAS 75, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.82,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%