NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	111		Excitement	7.2 [430]		MVP	Gary Trent Jr. (MIL): +22.9%
New Orleans Pelicans	107		Comeback	2.1 [677]		LVP	Jamal Cain (NOP): -13.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent Jr.	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23	0.17	0.05	-0.01	17	69%	0.25	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.03
Brook Lopez	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.08	0.03	16	59%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Kevin Porter Jr.	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	18	53%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Rollins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	15	39%	0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
AJ Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pete Nance	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	13	61%	0.05	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Taurean Prince	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yves Missi	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.02	13	64%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Antonio Reeves	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	18	61%	0.23	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Lester Quinones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.01	0.06	10	81%	0.10	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karlo Matkovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keion Brooks Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.03	11	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.01	16	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Cain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	8	20%	-0.09	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.6	23.4	14.5	25.5	2.5	35.9	126.0
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +22.5%

MIL +5.5%

MIL +9.4%

MIL +21.0%

NOP -8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NOP	NBA	MIL	NOP	NBA
this game	13.8	14.8	14.4	109.9	107.0	113.0
season	14.4	14.4		114.2	109.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		118.3	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.6	13.6	15.6	12.0	13.8
NOP	16.0	15.7	15.7	12.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Rollins	61	60	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-7	18	12.8	15.4	-2.64	14.3	15.6	-1.24
Brook Lopez	71	73	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.44	8	-4	12	13.8	13.8	-0.00	14.8	15.0	-0.18
AJ Green	52	52	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	-9	22	14.1	13.6	0.55	14.9	14.7	0.15
Taurean Prince	61	61	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.37	3	1	2	14.1	13.3	0.80	15.4	13.9	1.53
Kevin Porter Jr.	71	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	4	-4	14.1	13.1	1.04	14.8	14.9	-0.05
Gary Trent Jr.	85	84	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.32	1	3	-2	13.4	16.4	-3.02	14.7	15.2	-0.50
Kyle Kuzma	63	61	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	9	-14	13.7	14.0	-0.23	14.5	15.3	-0.83
Pete Nance	29	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.06	-4	8	-12	14.3	13.6	0.67	15.0	14.8	0.18
Andre Jackson Jr.	12	12	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.02	-7	11	-18	17.2	13.4	3.88	16.2	14.6	1.61

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yves Missi	63	62	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.20	7	-11	18	14.6	15.2	-0.66	13.9	13.8	0.06
Elfrid Payton	57	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	15.2	14.4	0.76	13.9	13.7	0.27
Keion Brooks Jr.	67	68	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.34	3	-7	10	14.6	15.3	-0.75	14.0	13.5	0.52
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	33	33	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	3	-10	15.3	14.6	0.75	13.5	14.0	-0.52
Antonio Reeves	79	80	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-7	10	14.3	16.9	-2.63	14.0	13.0	1.05
Lester Quinones	52	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-2	0	14.9	14.8	0.11	13.0	14.7	-1.67
Jamal Cain	45	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	6	-16	15.3	14.4	0.87	13.9	13.8	0.14
Bruce Brown	67	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-4	4	14.8	14.8	0.02	14.0	13.4	0.65
Karlo Matkovic	37	39	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	7	-18	15.2	14.6	0.66	13.8	13.9	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.63,0.41,0.19,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 105, DEN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.29,0.5,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.04,0.06,0,0,0	92.5%
MIN 86, NOK 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.12,0.09,0.02,0.04,0,0,0	92.2%
DEN 105, CLE 93	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.01,0,0	91.9%