NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	6.3 [563]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +25.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers	93		Comeback	1.5 [337]		LVP	LeBron James (CLE): -10.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.10	0.13	-0.03	9	72%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.09	-0.02	19	61%	0.24	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.07
Nene	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	12	68%	0.13	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.05
Linas Kleiza	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.00	10	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	13	56%	0.05	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Reggie Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	16	53%	0.16	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	15	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	0.04	11	55%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	19	46%	0.01	5	-0.11	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.6	27.1	18.7	23.8	3.5	30.6	135.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.5%

CLE -7.1%

DEN +2.2%

CLE -10.0%

DEN +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CLE	NBA	DEN	CLE	NBA
this game	14.0	16.1	15.4	109.4	97.9	104.5
season	14.0	16.0		105.8	103.2
opponent	15.6	15.3		99.6	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.3	14.1	14.4	15.7	14.0
CLE	14.9	16.5	16.9	16.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	63	64	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.23	14	-2	16	13.8	14.5	-0.63	16.3	15.7	0.62
J.R. Smith	48	45	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.12	17	-5	22	13.5	14.6	-1.17	16.7	15.6	1.11
Allen Iverson	92	92	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.13	14	-2	16	14.0	16.0	-2.04	16.2	12.7	3.57
Carmelo Anthony	77	76	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	6	0	14.2	13.6	0.58	16.4	15.2	1.14
Reggie Evans	15	16	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	2	8	12.1	14.4	-2.34	16.3	16.1	0.22
Steve Blake	64	63	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.11	5	7	-2	14.1	13.9	0.20	15.4	17.6	-2.17
Linas Kleiza	52	52	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.04	2	10	-8	14.1	14.0	0.16	16.1	16.2	-0.15
Marcus Camby	69	67	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.21	-8	20	-28	14.9	11.7	3.20	15.8	16.9	-1.04

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	83	84	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-13	14	15.4	20.8	-5.39	14.2	12.7	1.57
Donyell Marshall	13	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-10	8	16.6	16.0	0.57	13.1	14.2	-1.10
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	66	67	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-7	2	15.6	17.4	-1.85	14.1	14.0	0.11
Daniel Gibson	26	27	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-7	2	16.4	16.0	0.36	13.4	14.3	-0.93
Eric Snow	33	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-8	4	16.7	15.8	0.83	14.8	13.6	1.12
Ira Newble	18	21	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	-1	-10	17.4	15.8	1.56	13.1	14.3	-1.21
Drew Gooden	54	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-9	6	16.3	15.9	0.48	14.5	13.5	0.96
Sasha Pavlovic	61	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-5	-2	15.8	16.7	-0.86	13.9	14.3	-0.37
Anderson Varejao	40	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.07	-11	-1	-10	16.9	15.5	1.38	14.2	13.9	0.26
LeBron James	81	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.19	-13	1	-14	16.3	15.0	1.32	13.9	15.0	-1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.01,0.04,0	92.3%
NOP 111, DET 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.01,0	92.2%
DEN 105, ATL 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.04,0	92.1%