NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	105		Excitement	6.4 [560]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +34.2%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	2.5 [390]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -11.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.21,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.21	0.15	0.02	16	72%	0.36	1	-0.02	11	73%	0.05
Marc Gasol	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.06	0.02	17	64%	0.23	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Zach Randolph	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.02	18	53%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Troy Daniels	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	3	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Toney Douglas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	6	43%	-0.02	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	8	44%	0.01	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.09	0.00	9	61%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.04	0.03	8	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.03	0.03	16	59%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	15	44%	0.09	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.06	-0.06	0.09	16	56%	-0.06	1	-0.03	11	91%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	11	45%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	27.2	15.4	23.7	2.0	40.2	132.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +27.9%

MEM +17.4%

MEM +14.7%

DEN -7.3%

DEN -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	16.4	14.2	14.8	111.7	104.3	107.7
season	16.1	14.4		106.4	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.9		111.2	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.4	17.0	17.4	15.0	16.4
DEN	14.9	12.4	16.1	13.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	70	71	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	1	5	16.2	17.0	-0.73	13.7	16.0	-2.29
Vince Carter	53	52	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-7	21	15.2	18.0	-2.85	13.5	15.2	-1.71
JaMychal Green	57	58	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.40	2	5	-3	15.4	18.0	-2.66	14.2	14.2	0.00
Zach Randolph	48	46	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-7	21	18.0	14.8	3.15	14.7	13.8	0.88
Troy Daniels	34	34	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-3	13	17.9	15.5	2.39	15.3	13.6	1.63
Toney Douglas	37	36	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	-4	15	17.1	16.0	1.10	15.7	13.3	2.34
Tony Allen	56	56	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.40	-6	13	-19	16.1	16.8	-0.67	13.5	15.3	-1.79
Marc Gasol	76	76	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.13	-6	13	-19	16.1	17.7	-1.55	14.0	15.0	-0.96
Chandler Parsons	39	41	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	17	-27	17.1	15.9	1.13	14.9	13.7	1.12

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	65	63	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.23	7	-14	21	13.9	14.9	-1.02	16.3	16.7	-0.49
Gary Harris	67	67	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-13	19	14.1	14.6	-0.47	16.0	17.5	-1.50
Nikola Jokic	68	67	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-11	15	13.8	15.4	-1.66	16.3	16.7	-0.41
Darrell Arthur	23	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	2	-11	14.0	14.3	-0.24	16.1	16.5	-0.38
Danilo Gallinari	70	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.27	1	-8	9	13.6	15.9	-2.27	16.4	16.4	-0.03
Wilson Chandler	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-5	3	14.7	12.7	1.98	16.6	16.0	0.62
Mason Plumlee	31	33	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	5	-17	15.1	13.8	1.25	16.9	16.1	0.81
Jamal Murray	29	31	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.06	-14	7	-21	14.9	13.9	1.02	16.7	16.3	0.49
Will Barton	47	48	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.20	-16	9	-25	14.7	13.7	1.00	16.7	16.1	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.29,0.5,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.04,0.06,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 86, ATL 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0	93.2%
MEM 96, BOS 89	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.03,0,0.01,0	92.9%
MIA 99, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.4,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.02,0.04,0	92.3%