NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	115		Excitement	7.4 [209]		MVP	Mike Conley (MIN): +32.1%
Dallas Mavericks	114		Comeback	2.2 [353]		LVP	Quentin Grimes (DAL): -11.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.32	0.17	0.12	-0.03	9	90%	0.32	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Jaden McDaniels	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	18	61%	0.23	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.02
Naz Reid	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.01	9	67%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.01	4	87%	0.18	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.05
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	58%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	-0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	13	47%	0.08	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.02
Anthony Edwards	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	19	46%	0.04	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
Rob Dillingham	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.16	0.06	21	72%	0.38	3	-0.10	8	100%	0.05
P.J. Washington	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.07	0.04	22	59%	0.18	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.01
Kessler Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	11	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	83%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	13	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	3.3	27.6	14.6	30.2	3.5	43.0	150.5
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +5.7%

MIN +31.6%

MIN +9.0%

MIN +15.3%

DAL -11.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.2	14.4	111.7	112.9	112.3
season	14.7	14.1		112.2	115.4
opponent	14.5	14.7		111.9	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.5	13.8	12.1	14.3	14.1
DAL	15.5	13.4	14.1	13.9	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	69	65	1.02	-0.52	1.53	0.46	19	-18	37	13.7	14.8	-1.03	15.2	12.3	2.88
Jaden McDaniels	86	86	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.45	5	-4	9	13.8	15.5	-1.67	14.1	14.5	-0.44
Julius Randle	73	72	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	-5	11	14.0	14.3	-0.36	13.9	14.8	-0.89
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	69	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	6	-11	14.4	13.3	1.13	13.8	15.0	-1.20
Naz Reid	60	59	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.21	-1	2	-3	12.7	16.0	-3.26	14.4	13.8	0.68
Rudy Gobert	61	61	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	2	-3	15.4	12.1	3.31	14.5	13.6	0.92
Anthony Edwards	76	75	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.40	-10	11	-21	14.6	12.5	2.11	13.9	15.0	-1.13
Rob Dillingham	21	19	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	9	-17	13.4	14.2	-0.82	12.4	14.6	-2.14

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Williams	20	20	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.09	7	-8	15	14.0	14.2	-0.14	12.5	14.4	-1.90
Daniel Gafford	68	68	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.25	8	-9	17	13.8	14.9	-1.16	15.0	12.3	2.76
P.J. Washington	77	78	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.52	12	-13	25	13.4	16.5	-3.13	14.7	12.2	2.53
Kessler Edwards	30	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	2	-5	15.5	13.6	1.96	14.3	14.0	0.26
Spencer Dinwiddie	66	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.42	7	-8	15	13.9	14.6	-0.63	14.4	13.5	0.94
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	54	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	11	-23	15.1	13.1	2.05	13.3	14.9	-1.56
Quentin Grimes	77	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	4	-9	13.8	15.2	-1.38	13.9	14.7	-0.85
Maxi Kleber	33	36	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.21	-11	10	-21	14.9	13.8	1.16	12.0	15.2	-3.15
Kyrie Irving	80	81	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.35	-8	7	-15	14.2	13.9	0.38	14.3	13.1	1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.13,0.21,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.24,0.28,0.15,0.03,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, PHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.33,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.06,0,0	93.5%
DEN 106, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.19,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	92.5%
LAL 88, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.27,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.03,0.02,0	92.5%