NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	6.8 [506]		MVP	LeBron James (LAL): +25.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	117		Comeback	5.8 [410]		LVP	Shake Milton (LAL): -3.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.18	0.01	0.07	18	87%	0.30	7	-0.18	3	100%	0.01
Nikola Jovic	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	7	75%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.00	3	133%	0.18	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	65%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.04	0.00	7	43%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	56%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	41%	0.03	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.16	0.01	15	69%	0.31	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.10	0.15	0.01	15	68%	0.28	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.10	0.01	9	78%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Reaves	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	9	70%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Max Christie	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.04	0.04	12	62%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	21	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dalton Knecht	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	4	20%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Shake Milton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	27.4	14.6	25.0	1.6	28.2	123.5
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +13.2%

LAL +0.5%

LAL +0.1%

LAL +42.4%

MIA -6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.8	14.4	113.7	123.2	113.1
season	15.0	15.0		111.5	114.1
opponent	14.3	14.6		113.3	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.5	17.3	14.7	15.5
LAL	14.3	14.5	13.5	17.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	41	43	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-12	15	15.8	15.3	0.50	15.4	14.4	0.97
Nikola Jovic	60	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.31	3	-12	15	15.5	15.4	0.07	16.0	12.6	3.43
Kel'el Ware	33	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-8	7	15.8	15.3	0.53	14.7	14.9	-0.16
Bam Adebayo	63	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	1	-11	15.3	15.8	-0.51	14.9	14.7	0.17
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	51	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	3	-15	15.6	15.3	0.37	13.9	15.8	-1.90
Alec Burks	41	40	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.31	1	-10	11	15.0	15.8	-0.75	15.3	14.5	0.79
Terry Rozier	50	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-4	-1	16.3	14.6	1.66	13.6	16.3	-2.66
Tyler Herro	76	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	1	-11	15.2	16.6	-1.45	15.0	14.1	0.88
Haywood Highsmith	60	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.02	-14	5	-19	15.1	16.1	-1.01	14.5	15.4	-0.92

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Reaves	71	72	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.34	14	-5	19	14.4	16.0	-1.61	15.4	15.8	-0.41
LeBron James	76	75	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.27	14	-5	19	15.1	13.6	1.51	15.6	14.9	0.66
Max Christie	74	75	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	-1	11	14.7	15.4	-0.75	15.3	16.1	-0.86
Rui Hachimura	65	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-1	11	14.7	15.1	-0.38	15.3	15.9	-0.59
Anthony Davis	72	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.06	7	2	5	15.1	14.0	1.05	15.3	16.0	-0.63
Jaxson Hayes	29	27	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	7	-5	14.7	14.9	-0.22	15.9	15.3	0.63
Gabe Vincent	50	51	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	9	-9	14.7	15.0	-0.38	15.3	15.7	-0.43
Dalton Knecht	27	25	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	13	-17	15.0	14.8	0.27	16.2	15.2	0.99
Shake Milton	11	10	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	17	-25	16.3	14.7	1.62	16.7	15.3	1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.31,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.42,0.42,0.71,0.62,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.8,0.9,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 95, PHI 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.32,0.41,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.54,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.73,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	92.3%
IND 81, NYK 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.72,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	92.2%
MIL 124, PHX 125	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.23,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.36,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.29,0.38,0.52,0.75,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.67,0.89,0.93,0.83,1	92.1%