NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	124		Excitement	9.1 [161]		MVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): +39.1%
Chicago Bulls	119		Comeback	3.6 [504]		LVP	Patrick Williams (CHI): -11.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0.39	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.39	0.15	0.23	-0.01	16	70%	0.48	2	-0.09	5	80%	0.03
Domantas Sabonis	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13	0.15	0.01	0.03	10	85%	0.23	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Kevin Huerter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	20	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Keegan Murray	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	12	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Keon Ellis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Monk	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	17	49%	0.05	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Trey Lyles	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach LaVine	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.22,0.16	0.16	0.17	-0.02	-0.00	24	65%	0.27	2	-0.11	7	100%	0.05
Lonzo Ball	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	-0.01	0.01	9	83%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Talen Horton-Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	8	56%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matas Buzelis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	125%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Phillips	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	3	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.00	8	47%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dalen Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.07	-0.02	15	55%	0.08	2	-0.11	3	33%	-0.04
Josh Giddey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	9	55%	0.02	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Patrick Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	12	32%	-0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	28.5	14.4	24.6	2.4	28.6	126.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +17.2%

SAC +15.0%

SAC +8.7%

SAC +9.4%

CHI -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	CHI	NBA	SAC	CHI	NBA
this game	14.5	13.8	14.4	122.8	116.7	113.1
season	14.3	13.2		115.1	112.4
opponent	14.5	14.6		114.2	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.6	13.4	17.0	14.6	14.5
CHI	14.1	11.9	13.8	16.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	72	71	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	-3	11	14.3	15.1	-0.78	13.4	14.8	-1.44
DeMar DeRozan	78	80	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	-1	7	14.2	15.6	-1.32	14.0	13.1	0.95
Domantas Sabonis	78	79	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.39	-2	7	-9	14.7	13.9	0.87	14.1	12.9	1.19
Malik Monk	77	78	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.39	-4	9	-13	14.6	14.2	0.39	14.1	13.1	0.93
Trey Lyles	38	37	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	-4	13	15.0	14.3	0.69	13.7	13.9	-0.16
Devin Carter	24	24	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	-4	13	14.2	14.6	-0.39	13.1	14.1	-0.93
Keon Ellis	38	40	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.25	-3	8	-11	14.7	14.4	0.27	14.9	13.1	1.75
Keegan Murray	79	82	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	4	-3	14.0	16.4	-2.33	13.2	16.3	-3.13
Kevin Huerter	21	19	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	4	-3	16.5	14.0	2.50	14.1	13.8	0.33

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dalen Terry	33	31	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.05	2	-7	9	13.8	13.8	-0.02	14.6	14.5	0.10
Julian Phillips	26	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	3	-11	14.1	13.7	0.33	15.2	14.3	0.82
Zach LaVine	78	78	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.32	5	-10	15	14.2	12.6	1.58	14.8	13.7	1.10
Matas Buzelis	27	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-2	-1	13.8	13.9	-0.08	14.0	14.8	-0.80
Jalen Smith	32	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	2	-9	13.2	14.1	-0.99	14.9	14.4	0.53
Lonzo Ball	55	56	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.16	-3	-2	-1	14.2	13.4	0.84	14.2	15.0	-0.82
Josh Giddey	78	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.33	2	-7	9	13.6	14.7	-1.09	15.1	13.1	2.01
Nikola Vucevic	70	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-7	9	14.1	13.2	0.99	14.4	14.9	-0.53
Talen Horton-Tucker	37	35	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	7	-19	14.3	13.6	0.73	14.3	14.7	-0.31
Patrick Williams	74	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.46	-3	-2	-1	13.1	15.7	-2.54	14.1	15.9	-1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.43,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.42,0.48,0.67,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.65,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.45,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 99, ATL 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	92.7%
SAC 103, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.02,0	91.8%
CHI 112, IND 105	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.22,0.16,0,0	90.7%