NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	6.6 [341]		MVP	Peyton Watson (DEN): +15.5%
Dallas Mavericks	101		Comeback	33.6 [58]		LVP	Quentin Grimes (DAL): -10.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peyton Watson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.11	0.00	5	83%	0.18	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	7	93%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	3	86%	0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	18	44%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	13	54%	0.13	4	-0.09	9	78%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.04	0.03	17	57%	0.11	4	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	13	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	9	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	28%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	-0.02	-0.01	19	64%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Naji Marshall	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	-0.02	-0.03	12	67%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dereck Lively II	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	78%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	13	44%	0.04	2	-0.05	10	80%	-0.04
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	7	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	9	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	4	37%	0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.7	31.1	14.8	31.1	1.5	26.5	132.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.3%

DAL -2.2%

DEN +16.9%

DAL -3.7%

DEN +7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.4	14.4	115.5	105.2	112.6
season	13.9	14.3		119.1	115.1
opponent	14.5	14.5		112.8	113.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	14.9	11.8	17.1	14.4
DAL	15.3	15.1	14.5	17.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	64	64	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.09	30	-19	49	14.0	15.1	-1.04	16.2	13.9	2.31
Aaron Gordon	39	37	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.26	23	-12	35	13.4	15.1	-1.66	16.1	15.0	1.12
Michael Porter Jr.	52	50	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	9	-7	14.6	14.1	0.50	14.9	16.0	-1.06
DeAndre Jordan	19	19	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	-2	15	15.1	14.2	0.87	14.9	15.6	-0.62
Julian Strawther	53	53	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.23	16	-5	21	13.6	15.4	-1.84	15.5	15.4	0.01
Russell Westbrook	70	68	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	14	-17	14.4	14.4	-0.01	15.1	16.4	-1.33
Nikola Jokic	78	77	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	13	-15	14.2	15.1	-0.87	15.6	14.9	0.62
Jamal Murray	62	63	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.06	-5	16	-21	15.5	12.5	3.04	15.2	16.0	-0.84
Christian Braun	48	49	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.44	-19	30	-49	14.9	13.9	1.06	15.3	15.6	-0.21

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Naji Marshall	62	61	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.28	16	-27	43	15.3	15.8	-0.54	14.3	14.5	-0.20
Jaden Hardy	33	36	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.17	-3	-8	5	14.9	15.7	-0.87	12.0	15.8	-3.82
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	6	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-7	3	13.5	15.6	-2.08	13.7	14.5	-0.78
Daniel Gafford	32	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.14	-7	-4	-3	16.3	15.0	1.25	11.9	15.6	-3.72
Dereck Lively II	53	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.22	5	-16	21	14.8	16.2	-1.42	15.6	13.0	2.60
Klay Thompson	70	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-12	13	15.3	15.9	-0.65	15.3	12.0	3.33
P.J. Washington	74	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.45	2	-13	15	15.3	15.9	-0.60	15.3	11.7	3.52
Quentin Grimes	37	38	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.09	-22	11	-33	16.3	14.9	1.38	12.9	15.4	-2.43
Maxi Kleber	37	39	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	0.11	-26	15	-41	16.1	15.1	0.99	13.5	15.0	-1.57
Spencer Dinwiddie	76	76	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.19	-17	6	-23	15.7	14.5	1.13	15.4	10.7	4.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.7,0.76,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.75,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 101, NJN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.75,0.76,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.15,0.28,0.23,0.27,0	89.9%
NYK 95, BKN 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.1,0	89.4%
DAL 127, GSW 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.71,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.78,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.03,0,0	89.1%