NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	114		Excitement	6.0 [628]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +23.8%
Golden State Warriors	98		Comeback	1.7 [212]		LVP	Lindy Waters III (GSW): -7.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alec Burks	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.01	6	73%	0.18	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Nikola Jovic	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.11	-0.00	17	54%	0.21	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Duncan Robinson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.03	-0.01	6	100%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	14	66%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Tyler Herro	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	14	45%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	12	64%	0.12	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Christopher	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keshad Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	12	37%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.07	-0.04	22	69%	0.33	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.17	0.03	0.04	12	76%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gui Santos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moses Moody	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	7	36%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	12	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	10	25%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindy Waters III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.5	23.5	0.1	23.6	2.4	27.2	106.4
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.5%

MIA +13.1%

GSW -6.8%

GSW -0.2%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	16.2	13.2	14.4	118.8	98.0	113.0
season	15.0	14.5		111.5	112.9
opponent	14.5	14.6		110.5	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.1	15.6	19.1	17.8	16.2
GSW	12.6	13.8	12.5	14.1	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	67	70	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.14	25	-9	34	15.6	17.7	-2.09	14.0	11.3	2.74
Duncan Robinson	43	44	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.11	20	-4	24	15.1	17.1	-1.97	14.5	12.2	2.20
Alec Burks	48	51	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.04	17	-1	18	16.3	16.2	0.12	14.1	12.3	1.83
Bam Adebayo	59	59	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.09	18	-2	20	17.2	14.6	2.62	13.6	12.6	1.03
Terry Rozier	67	68	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.04	14	2	12	16.4	15.8	0.62	13.0	13.7	-0.69
Kel'el Ware	37	41	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	18	-20	14.6	17.2	-2.62	12.6	13.6	-1.03
Haywood Highsmith	48	49	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	17	-18	16.2	16.3	-0.12	12.3	14.1	-1.83
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	56	60	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	19	-22	16.5	15.9	0.61	12.9	13.6	-0.67
Tyler Herro	52	55	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	18	-20	17.0	15.3	1.64	12.5	14.1	-1.66
Josh Christopher	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	24.0	16.1	7.85	0.0	13.4	-13.35
Pelle Larsson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	24.0	16.1	7.85	0.0	13.4	-13.35
Keshad Johnson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	24.0	16.1	7.85	0.0	13.4	-13.35

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Spencer	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-18	20	10.6	13.4	-2.76	22.8	15.9	6.93
Gui Santos	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-18	20	10.6	13.4	-2.76	22.8	15.9	6.93
Moses Moody	35	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	-9	2	13.6	13.0	0.63	15.2	16.7	-1.42
Andrew Wiggins	52	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	-9	2	12.6	13.9	-1.34	15.9	16.6	-0.63
Draymond Green	56	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	-7	-2	12.6	14.0	-1.43	15.5	17.2	-1.71
Buddy Hield	51	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-9	2	13.5	13.0	0.47	15.8	16.7	-0.87
Kyle Anderson	55	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-12	8	13.7	12.6	1.13	16.3	16.2	0.08
Dennis Schroder	59	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.10	-13	-3	-10	13.4	12.9	0.54	16.6	15.7	0.95
Stephen Curry	72	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-6	-4	13.0	13.7	-0.64	15.8	17.3	-1.43
Lindy Waters III	36	37	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	-4	-8	14.3	12.6	1.74	16.6	16.0	0.68
Trayce Jackson-Davis	74	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.05	-15	-1	-14	13.2	13.2	0.04	16.6	15.2	1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.33,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.0%
LAL 107, DEN 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
TOR 83, SAS 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%