NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	121		Excitement	4.6 [356]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +24.1%
Denver Nuggets	134		Comeback	1.8 [272]		LVP	Simone Fontecchio (DET): -7.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaden Ivey	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.01	9	89%	0.17	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	11	58%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	3	89%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jalen Duren	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Ausar Thompson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Ronald Holland II	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.04	9	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Stewart	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Moore Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Sasser	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	62%	0.01	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Paul Reed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Cade Cunningham	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	18	45%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	6	25%	-0.07	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.22	0.05	0.03	14	81%	0.24	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.25	0.02	0.04	17	77%	0.25	2	-0.02	14	79%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.20	0.02	0.09	21	69%	0.14	1	-0.01	7	86%	-0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	4	71%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	38%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	9	33%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	6	67%	0.07	6	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.8	28.5	14.7	33.7	1.0	31.2	138.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +29.8%

DEN +12.6%

DET -4.0%

DEN +7.9%

DEN +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	13.6	14.5	14.3	118.6	130.1	112.0
season	14.3	13.7		110.6	116.4
opponent	14.4	14.6		113.4	112.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.9	16.4	14.3	10.2	13.6
DEN	14.3	14.9	12.0	16.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ausar Thompson	50	51	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.33	12	-25	37	13.0	14.2	-1.25	15.0	13.9	1.08
Wendell Moore Jr.	26	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.36	12	-25	37	10.2	14.8	-4.57	16.8	13.6	3.20
Paul Reed	26	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.36	12	-25	37	10.2	14.8	-4.57	16.8	13.6	3.20
Ronald Holland II	43	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-13	13	11.3	15.3	-4.00	15.6	13.6	2.06
Marcus Sasser	35	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-12	11	10.7	15.2	-4.45	14.9	14.2	0.62
Malik Beasley	40	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.20	-12	-1	-11	14.4	13.1	1.34	13.4	15.1	-1.64
Simone Fontecchio	28	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.24	-16	3	-19	13.0	13.9	-0.93	13.9	14.7	-0.78
Isaiah Stewart	36	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.27	-17	4	-21	14.1	13.4	0.73	13.4	15.0	-1.52
Jalen Duren	40	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-5	-3	15.4	12.5	2.94	13.8	14.9	-1.17
Tobias Harris	50	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-5	-3	15.6	11.7	3.93	13.8	15.1	-1.28
Tim Hardaway Jr.	37	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.03	-12	-1	-11	15.5	12.6	2.86	13.9	14.8	-0.81
Cade Cunningham	55	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	-3	-7	15.3	11.7	3.55	13.5	15.6	-2.10
Jaden Ivey	44	43	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.05	-17	4	-21	14.8	12.8	2.04	14.6	14.4	0.17

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	86	85	0.62	-0.12	0.75	-0.08	24	-11	35	14.2	15.7	-1.50	13.5	14.5	-1.07
Nikola Jokic	80	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.18	25	-12	37	13.9	16.5	-2.66	13.9	12.8	1.04
Christian Braun	63	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	1	11	14.2	14.9	-0.73	14.2	12.8	1.42
Russell Westbrook	63	63	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.05	13	0	13	14.5	14.3	0.21	14.6	12.1	2.53
Michael Porter Jr.	70	70	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	8	-3	14.5	14.3	0.27	14.3	12.3	1.98
Hunter Tyson	30	30	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.14	9	4	5	14.6	14.4	0.25	12.6	14.1	-1.42
Peyton Watson	50	49	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	19	-25	15.1	13.8	1.33	12.1	15.1	-3.03
Julian Strawther	50	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.13	-5	18	-23	14.2	14.7	-0.46	13.3	13.9	-0.64
DeAndre Jordan	23	22	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.30	-12	25	-37	16.5	13.9	2.66	12.8	13.9	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.54,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 76, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
HOU 91, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
NYK 101, ATL 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%