NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	7.5 [367]		MVP	De'Andre Hunter (ATL): +44.5%
Atlanta Hawks	120		Comeback	1.7 [671]		LVP	Trae Young (ATL): -24.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.25	0.17	0.07	-0.01	15	74%	0.29	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Duncan Robinson	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.04	-0.02	14	57%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	0.00	0.06	8	87%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Rozier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Pelle Larsson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.01	17	49%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.44	0.44	0.21	0.24	0.00	14	74%	0.44	0	0.00	7	86%	0.07
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.10	0.00	8	86%	0.27	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Jalen Johnson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.19	0.06	0.04	20	68%	0.21	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	3	86%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Vit Krejci	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Keaton Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	71%	0.10	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Zaccharie Risacher	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	12	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.10	-0.13	0.01	13	37%	-0.14	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	24.4	14.6	27.0	2.7	33.3	128.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +45.5%

ATL +10.2%

ATL +9.3%

MIA -15.6%

ATL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.7	14.4	14.4	110.0	122.4	113.1
season	14.9	13.2		111.9	113.0
opponent	14.5	14.6		114.4	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.1	15.0	14.5	13.9	14.7
ATL	13.1	15.0	13.2	16.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	9	8	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.04	4	-14	18	14.4	14.7	-0.23	14.1	14.5	-0.34
Duncan Robinson	77	74	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	-0.35	10	-20	30	15.0	13.6	1.41	15.5	11.2	4.22
Kel'el Ware	23	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	-2	-6	13.0	15.1	-2.09	12.0	15.2	-3.19
Terry Rozier	43	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	-1	-8	14.3	14.9	-0.69	14.6	14.3	0.30
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	43	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-5	0	15.6	13.9	1.72	14.8	14.2	0.59
Tyler Herro	75	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-7	4	14.7	14.6	0.12	13.9	16.1	-2.23
Bam Adebayo	73	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-9	8	15.3	12.8	2.56	15.6	11.6	4.01
Nikola Jovic	41	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	1	-12	12.2	16.3	-4.12	13.5	15.1	-1.60
Alec Burks	42	43	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.03	-16	6	-22	14.2	15.0	-0.79	12.6	15.9	-3.23
Haywood Highsmith	74	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	1	-12	15.4	12.5	2.85	15.0	13.0	1.96

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Johnson	72	73	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.09	18	-8	26	14.6	14.0	0.65	15.0	13.6	1.45
Garrison Mathews	59	60	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.11	16	-6	22	13.6	15.8	-2.21	13.6	16.2	-2.54
Trae Young	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.08	17	-7	24	14.8	13.3	1.48	15.5	12.2	3.27
De'Andre Hunter	61	63	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.06	15	-5	20	13.0	16.8	-3.81	13.7	16.3	-2.61
Larry Nance Jr.	59	59	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.09	13	-3	16	13.1	16.4	-3.32	13.5	16.3	-2.78
Clint Capela	39	41	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	13	-16	16.4	13.1	3.32	16.3	13.5	2.78
Vit Krejci	44	44	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	15	-20	16.0	13.2	2.79	16.0	13.6	2.41
Keaton Wallace	27	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.14	-9	19	-28	13.5	14.8	-1.32	13.3	15.2	-1.88
Zaccharie Risacher	54	55	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.22	-12	22	-34	15.5	13.1	2.45	14.9	14.4	0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.74,0.83,0.71,0.81,0.64,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.54,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 75, HOU 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.91,0.86,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.63,0.99,1,1	93.3%
NOP 80, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.82,0.53,0.46,0.86,0.92,1	92.8%
ORL 97, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	92.2%