NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	149		Excitement	4.2 [971]		MVP	Donovan Mitchell (CLE): +24.5%
Denver Nuggets	135		Comeback	1.5 [756]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (DEN): -7.3%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.23	0.01	-0.00	17	80%	0.27	3	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Evan Mobley	0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.20	0.01	0.05	13	81%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Sam Merrill	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.04	0.00	4	112%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Garland	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.01	-0.04	18	62%	0.14	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Jarrett Allen	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.01	0.01	13	79%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dean Wade	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	0.00	0.07	4	110%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jaylon Tyson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caris LeVert	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.08	0.00	0.10	10	65%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Georges Niang	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Jerome	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	15%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Max Strus	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.17	0.02	0.05	8	86%	0.14	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.00	0.04	11	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.13	-0.00	0.06	9	89%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	7	69%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	-0.01	0.09	19	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Jalen Pickett	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.07	20	61%	0.06	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	13	42%	-0.01	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	30.3	14.6	29.3	2.4	28.6	133.9
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +37.5%

DEN -0.5%

CLE +2.3%

CLE +8.8%

CLE +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DEN	NBA	CLE	DEN	NBA
this game	13.4	14.0	14.4	141.9	128.6	113.0
season	13.7	14.2		120.5	117.1
opponent	14.5	14.9		114.6	110.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	11.8	12.1	13.7	16.5	13.4
DEN	14.9	13.1	14.6	13.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Allen	66	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	-4	22	14.3	12.0	2.23	14.1	13.9	0.20
Dean Wade	56	55	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.11	19	-5	24	14.0	12.8	1.19	14.6	13.4	1.22
Darius Garland	68	68	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.01	13	1	12	14.3	11.8	2.46	14.0	14.0	0.00
Ty Jerome	18	18	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.08	15	-1	16	11.7	13.8	-2.13	13.2	14.2	-1.01
Sam Merrill	41	40	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.01	10	4	6	13.9	13.1	0.78	13.7	14.2	-0.44
Donovan Mitchell	64	65	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	10	-6	13.3	13.7	-0.42	14.7	12.8	1.86
Evan Mobley	66	67	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.17	-1	15	-16	13.3	13.6	-0.26	14.6	12.9	1.69
Caris LeVert	51	53	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	11	-8	13.5	13.3	0.20	12.5	15.5	-3.05
Georges Niang	36	36	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.14	-4	18	-22	12.3	14.0	-1.71	13.7	14.1	-0.38
Max Strus	55	54	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.16	-5	19	-24	12.0	15.0	-3.00	14.0	14.0	-0.04
Jaylon Tyson	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	13.0	13.4	-0.45	11.3	14.1	-2.75

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Pickett	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-16	18	11.3	14.1	-2.75	13.0	13.4	-0.45
Spencer Jones	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-16	18	11.3	14.1	-2.75	13.0	13.4	-0.45
Zeke Nnaji	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-16	18	11.3	14.1	-2.75	13.0	13.4	-0.45
Julian Strawther	52	54	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-20	26	13.6	14.4	-0.84	12.1	14.8	-2.67
DeAndre Jordan	24	24	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-13	12	15.0	13.7	1.35	12.5	13.7	-1.26
Hunter Tyson	13	15	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-12	10	12.1	14.3	-2.19	13.1	13.5	-0.42
Michael Porter Jr.	68	67	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-9	4	14.4	13.2	1.25	14.1	12.3	1.83
Jamal Murray	88	87	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-5	-4	14.4	11.8	2.60	13.5	12.9	0.58
Peyton Watson	60	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	2	-18	13.9	14.1	-0.23	12.1	15.1	-2.95
Russell Westbrook	63	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	-1	-12	14.2	13.8	0.40	14.3	12.1	2.22
Nikola Jokic	78	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	1	-16	13.8	14.6	-0.85	13.8	12.5	1.22
Christian Braun	70	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.09	-21	7	-28	13.9	14.2	-0.34	14.1	12.2	1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.37,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 109, CLE 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0	95.7%
MIA 97, WAS 75	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
MIA 108, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%