NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	7.3 [161]		MVP	Tidjane Salaun (CHA): +38.0%
Charlotte Hornets	94		Comeback	3.3 [180]		LVP	Brandon Miller (CHA): -29.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.30	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,-0.08,0.3	-0.00	0.27	-0.04	22	59%	0.53	6	-0.23	2	50%	-0.03
Duncan Robinson	0.18	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.02	12	81%	0.19	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	150%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	3	60%	0.02	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Alec Burks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	10	44%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Haywood Highsmith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.07	-0.02	6	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tidjane Salaun	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.38	0.38	0.10	0.31	0.03	12	71%	0.39	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vasilije Micic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	8	37%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.07,-0.1,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.15	0.02	-0.09	35	43%	0.09	7	-0.12	5	60%	-0.01
Moussa Diabate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cody Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.09	0.01	10	18%	-0.21	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.25
Brandon Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.3	-0.30	0.03	-0.31	0.02	19	54%	-0.03	2	-0.26	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	25.2	14.8	28.4	3.6	33.5	133.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.2%

MIA +24.6%

CHA -7.5%

CHA -4.8%

MIA +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	14.3	105.4	100.0	112.0
season	14.8	15.0		112.5	107.0
opponent	14.2	14.6		113.1	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.4	13.5	14.3	16.5	15.2
CHA	16.3	15.8	17.0	13.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	29	28	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.40	6	-2	8	14.7	15.3	-0.62	15.2	15.8	-0.67
Tyler Herro	77	78	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	-5	14	14.4	18.6	-4.20	15.3	17.1	-1.78
Bam Adebayo	69	71	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	-1	6	15.3	14.8	0.48	15.9	14.8	1.09
Jimmy Butler	46	47	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.03	14	-10	24	15.5	14.9	0.61	17.4	13.9	3.55
Haywood Highsmith	56	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.37	-6	10	-16	15.8	14.1	1.73	15.8	15.3	0.51
Duncan Robinson	58	60	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.07	7	-3	10	16.2	13.5	2.67	17.2	12.9	4.33
Alec Burks	14	14	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	2	0	12.4	15.6	-3.29	13.4	16.0	-2.61
Kel'el Ware	25	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	3	-2	14.2	15.5	-1.30	14.4	16.1	-1.71
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	42	41	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	8	-12	15.2	15.1	0.12	14.3	16.7	-2.41
Terry Rozier	49	49	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.45	-14	18	-32	15.3	15.0	0.37	14.6	16.8	-2.29

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Smith Jr.	18	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-5	6	14.1	16.0	-1.97	16.1	14.9	1.11
Moussa Diabate	61	61	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.35	9	-13	22	15.9	15.2	0.67	15.8	13.9	1.85
Vasilije Micic	28	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-1	-2	15.6	15.7	-0.06	13.9	15.7	-1.77
Seth Curry	18	16	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	1	-6	14.4	15.9	-1.49	15.2	15.1	0.04
Brandon Miller	73	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-8	12	16.0	14.4	1.63	15.2	15.0	0.19
Josh Green	59	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-2	0	16.0	15.1	0.94	15.0	15.4	-0.41
Taj Gibson	22	22	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.17	-17	13	-30	16.2	15.5	0.70	12.9	15.9	-3.00
Cody Martin	48	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.19	-5	1	-6	14.7	16.7	-2.01	14.6	15.7	-1.12
Tidjane Salaun	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-4	4	16.1	14.2	1.90	15.8	13.0	2.88
LaMelo Ball	72	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-2	0	15.5	16.0	-0.46	15.4	14.5	0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.15,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 103, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.3,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.27,0	92.3%
ORL 109, CLE 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.22,0.42,0	92.1%
IND 81, ATL 73	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.27,0.24,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.02,0	91.9%