NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	118		Excitement	12.4 [5]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +47.1%
Miami Heat	123		Comeback	8.3 [68]		LVP	Spencer Dinwiddie (DAL): -30.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dereck Lively II	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	9	78%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	14	60%	0.21	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Kyrie Irving	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.28,0.22,0.38,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	21	55%	0.27	3	-0.15	7	86%	-0.01
Naji Marshall	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	16	57%	0.18	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.03
Daniel Gafford	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.02	12	56%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jaden Hardy	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.3	-0.09	-0.24	-0.03	12	24%	-0.30	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47	0.47	0.14	0.34	0.01	17	66%	0.76	3	-0.29	16	69%	-0.05
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.12	0.24	-0.00	9	75%	0.36	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.00	8	78%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	0.01	20	47%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	41%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	10	41%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.17,-0.09,-0.22,-0.22,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.3	-0.30	-0.09	-0.22	-0.01	25	35%	-0.28	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.2	2.3	30.0	14.8	25.4	1.7	33.2	2.4	13.2	150.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.6	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +91.5%

DAL -26.9%

DAL -10.0%

DAL -4.4%

DAL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.5	15.2	14.3	106.3	110.8	111.7
season	14.0	14.8		116.9	112.8
opponent	14.6	14.5		110.4	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	14.4	11.4	13.5	14.3	14.2	13.5
MIA	13.8	16.3	13.7	16.4	17.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Klay Thompson	65	67	0.52	-1.02	1.53	0.16	12	-17	29	12.8	14.4	-1.61	15.5	14.7	0.78
Kyrie Irving	82	81	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-10	15	13.5	13.3	0.24	15.3	14.9	0.36
Dereck Lively II	64	61	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.28	8	-13	21	13.3	13.7	-0.36	16.3	13.9	2.44
Quentin Grimes	56	55	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.36	8	-13	21	12.7	14.2	-1.56	15.8	14.6	1.16
Maxi Kleber	21	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	3	-11	13.8	13.4	0.38	14.1	15.5	-1.36
Jaden Hardy	21	21	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.04	-10	5	-15	14.5	13.2	1.32	11.9	16.0	-4.06
P.J. Washington	82	83	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.45	1	-6	7	13.2	14.1	-0.84	15.4	14.5	0.98
Daniel Gafford	43	45	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	8	-21	13.8	13.2	0.56	14.3	15.8	-1.49
Spencer Dinwiddie	56	58	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.25	-10	5	-15	13.7	13.2	0.42	15.5	14.9	0.63
Naji Marshall	65	63	-1.01	0.51	-1.52	-0.48	-18	13	-31	14.3	12.3	1.99	14.7	15.9	-1.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	76	77	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.09	18	-13	31	15.2	15.1	0.08	13.2	13.9	-0.67
Kevin Love	44	42	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-5	15	12.5	16.9	-4.39	12.8	13.9	-1.11
Jimmy Butler	80	80	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.46	4	1	3	14.9	16.1	-1.20	13.5	13.3	0.27
Alec Burks	65	63	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-6	17	15.1	15.3	-0.14	13.7	13.1	0.57
Tyler Herro	91	91	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.56	-1	6	-7	14.6	17.9	-3.30	13.3	13.9	-0.61
Bam Adebayo	74	75	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	1	3	16.6	12.3	4.31	14.0	12.2	1.82
Duncan Robinson	34	36	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.26	-7	12	-19	16.0	14.8	1.20	14.4	13.0	1.39
Nikola Jovic	12	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.03	-5	10	-15	18.7	14.8	3.89	11.4	13.7	-2.32
Haywood Highsmith	40	41	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.07	-7	12	-19	14.5	15.6	-1.01	13.1	13.7	-0.60
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	39	39	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.23	-2	7	-9	16.5	14.5	1.95	13.3	13.5	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.33,0.58,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.68,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 107, NYK 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.65,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.77,0.98,1	90.5%
TOR 89, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.47,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.31,0.45,0.33,0.73,1	89.0%
ATL 84, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.72,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.59,0.46,0.75,0.71,0.84,0.96,1	88.9%