NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	6.8 [466]		MVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): +34.9%
Boston Celtics	107		Comeback	1.6 [925]		LVP	Naz Reid (MIN): -12.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rob Dillingham	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.01	10	70%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	15	53%	0.08	0	0.00	13	62%	-0.06
Rudy Gobert	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	5	83%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Donte DiVincenzo	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	69%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Minott	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden McDaniels	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,0,0,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	13	38%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.08,-0.02,-0.02	0.09	-0.07	0.03	21	61%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Naz Reid	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	28%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.38,0.35	0.35	0.21	0.12	-0.02	18	76%	0.37	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.10	0.13	-0.01	12	73%	0.29	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	-0.04	-0.03	21	54%	0.10	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	53%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	36%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Tillman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	10	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	10	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	27.1	14.6	27.2	1.6	28.3	122.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +34.5%

BOS +3.2%

MIN -8.9%

BOS +6.4%

BOS +14.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	BOS	NBA	MIN	BOS	NBA
this game	15.2	16.8	14.4	116.7	118.9	113.1
season	14.7	15.2		115.4	118.8
opponent	14.4	14.6		109.5	110.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.6	15.7	15.7	14.9	15.2
BOS	16.1	15.0	16.3	20.4	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	49	50	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.25	12	-14	26	15.0	15.4	-0.46	18.0	15.4	2.59
Naz Reid	44	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.35	10	-12	22	14.8	15.5	-0.68	18.7	14.8	3.94
Rob Dillingham	29	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-4	6	14.7	15.4	-0.69	18.6	16.0	2.62
Josh Minott	3	3	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	6	-14	16.7	15.1	1.53	11.7	17.0	-5.32
Rudy Gobert	66	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	2	-6	15.2	15.2	-0.03	16.2	18.5	-2.37
Anthony Edwards	75	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.40	2	-4	6	14.7	17.7	-3.05	16.4	18.5	-2.05
Donte DiVincenzo	56	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.31	-2	0	-2	15.3	15.1	0.21	16.0	18.1	-2.09
Jaden McDaniels	58	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	10	-22	16.1	13.5	2.57	16.4	17.5	-1.08
Julius Randle	70	69	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.39	-10	8	-18	15.4	14.4	1.01	16.1	19.0	-2.86

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	74	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.39	7	-5	12	16.2	19.8	-3.65	15.0	16.0	-1.00
Derrick White	70	71	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.33	8	-6	14	16.5	18.0	-1.53	15.9	12.5	3.38
Jaylen Brown	66	67	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.38	-1	3	-4	17.0	16.2	0.82	15.7	13.7	2.06
Al Horford	63	64	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	-1	4	16.5	17.4	-0.90	15.1	15.4	-0.33
Jrue Holiday	69	69	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	6	-10	16.9	16.5	0.37	14.7	16.8	-2.11
Xavier Tillman	27	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	3	-4	17.4	16.5	0.90	15.4	15.1	0.33
Sam Hauser	39	38	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	1	0	17.5	16.3	1.19	14.7	15.5	-0.83
Payton Pritchard	42	42	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.14	-3	5	-8	17.4	16.3	1.11	14.7	15.6	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.66,0.76,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.81,0.77,0.9,0.84,0.78,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 87, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.7,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.79,0.75,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.98,1	92.1%
CHI 79, IND 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.73,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	91.7%
LAL 93, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.91,1	91.6%