NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	119		Excitement	10.2 [21]		MVP	Franz Wagner (ORL): +77.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	118		Comeback	32.3 [10]		LVP	Austin Reaves (LAL): -24.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0.77	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0,0.22,0.22,0.77	0.14	0.65	0.02	26	62%	0.91	3	-0.13	8	87%	0.03
Moritz Wagner	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.09	-0.00	13	61%	0.19	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	7	79%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	4	78%	0.15	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.02
Tristan da Silva	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	8	67%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jett Howard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09	0.05	-0.13	0.01	18	56%	0.02	3	-0.10	5	80%	-0.03
Jonathan Isaac	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Black	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.35,0.38	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.00	22	65%	0.50	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.05
Anthony Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.17	0.17	0.21	-0.04	-0.00	22	68%	0.23	3	-0.06	13	77%	-0.08
Dalton Knecht	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	14	61%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cam Reddish	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.02	4	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Koloko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Gabe Vincent	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	10	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Reaves	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.10	-0.12	0.02	12	31%	-0.18	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	2.5	25.5	15.4	25.6	2.5	40.3	142.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +56.6%

ORL +12.9%

ORL +5.8%

LAL -29.6%

ORL +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	LAL	NBA	ORL	LAL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.6	14.3	122.7	120.4	111.7
season	15.0	14.7		109.5	110.9
opponent	14.1	14.3		113.9	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.0	17.5	12.3	16.0	14.9
LAL	13.1	12.5	18.4	14.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goga Bitadze	57	58	1.02	-0.52	1.53	0.64	13	-12	25	14.4	15.7	-1.31	15.6	13.1	2.51
Franz Wagner	80	79	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.56	5	-4	9	14.2	18.4	-4.15	14.7	14.1	0.63
Jalen Suggs	80	82	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.47	6	-5	11	14.2	18.3	-4.08	15.1	12.1	2.97
Tristan da Silva	64	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-9	19	14.4	16.0	-1.58	15.2	13.6	1.57
Jonathan Isaac	35	37	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.72	-7	8	-15	18.2	13.1	5.07	13.1	15.5	-2.37
Anthony Black	45	44	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.24	-6	7	-13	15.7	14.2	1.50	14.5	14.7	-0.24
Cole Anthony	9	10	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	-1	3	12.2	15.2	-2.98	15.0	14.6	0.43
Gary Harris	52	53	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	0	1	14.3	15.7	-1.42	15.2	14.0	1.17
Jett Howard	23	23	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.19	-7	8	-15	17.5	14.1	3.34	12.2	15.4	-3.19
Moritz Wagner	40	40	-0.52	1.02	-1.53	-0.17	-12	13	-25	15.7	14.4	1.31	13.1	15.6	-2.51

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	28	27	0.29	-0.79	1.08	0.11	6	-7	13	14.1	14.8	-0.66	16.1	14.5	1.64
Dalton Knecht	78	79	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-6	11	14.9	13.4	1.52	14.4	17.3	-2.95
Christian Koloko	21	21	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	0	-1	13.8	14.8	-1.08	16.6	14.5	2.16
D'Angelo Russell	46	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.16	2	-3	5	14.7	14.6	0.08	16.4	13.7	2.70
Max Christie	49	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	1	-3	13.9	15.3	-1.43	16.8	13.1	3.73
Cam Reddish	46	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-2	3	13.5	15.6	-2.06	13.6	16.1	-2.51
Anthony Davis	77	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.51	0	-1	1	14.8	13.8	1.08	14.5	16.6	-2.16
LeBron James	78	75	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.54	-8	7	-15	15.2	12.5	2.65	14.1	17.7	-3.62
Austin Reaves	67	68	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.61	-8	7	-15	15.1	13.6	1.41	14.6	15.7	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.33,0.58,0.53,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.45,0.85,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.67,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.69,0	89.7%
LAL 96, CHH 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.62,0.71,0.55,0.74,0	89.1%
MIA 109, BKN 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.57,0.53,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.81,0.73,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.84,0	88.8%