NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	8.6 [141]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +15.3%
Toronto Raptors	89		Comeback	4.7 [125]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -37.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,0.15	-0.05	0.20	-0.01	17	55%	0.27	4	-0.11	8	62%	-0.04
Eddie Jones	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	15	41%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	15	59%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
John Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	5	42%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Rafer Alston	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.03	-0.17	0.00	9	33%	-0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	15	44%	-0.10	3	-0.11	9	78%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	92%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.00	15	71%	0.15	3	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.06	0.00	5	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	6	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.1,0.1,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	-0.01	11	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jalen Rose	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	9	55%	0.00	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.27	-0.27	-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	8	18%	-0.27	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.03
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.37	-0.37	-0.07	-0.31	-0.01	12	40%	-0.34	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	33.2	15.5	26.2	2.6	26.5	130.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.9%

TOR -2.1%

MIA +12.5%

TOR -4.5%

MIA +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	17.0	15.0	15.7	101.1	97.8	100.5
season	16.2	16.8		99.3	94.8
opponent	15.7	15.9		98.4	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.9	15.8	17.3	18.6	17.0
TOR	12.6	14.2	14.0	20.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	70	69	1.10	-0.60	1.70	0.54	19	-18	37	16.8	18.1	-1.30	14.9	15.3	-0.37
Eddie Jones	69	70	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.50	12	-11	23	17.6	15.2	2.30	15.7	12.5	3.20
Dwyane Wade	76	77	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.54	6	-5	11	16.7	19.2	-2.48	14.5	17.8	-3.31
Lamar Odom	74	76	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.46	3	-2	5	17.3	15.9	1.40	15.2	14.1	1.10
Rafer Alston	45	48	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.46	-11	12	-23	17.5	16.6	0.92	15.9	14.0	1.92
Caron Butler	64	64	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	-4	9	16.6	18.0	-1.40	13.5	18.5	-5.02
John Wallace	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	1	-1	1.0	17.2	-16.22	0.0	15.2	-15.16
Udonis Haslem	27	28	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	-0.07	-11	12	-23	16.9	17.1	-0.26	16.4	14.3	2.08
Samaki Walker	19	22	-0.60	1.10	-1.70	-0.07	-18	19	-37	18.1	16.8	1.30	15.3	14.9	0.37

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonny Baxter	43	40	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.12	5	-6	11	16.2	13.9	2.23	17.3	16.8	0.57
Michael Curry	39	38	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.07	9	-10	19	16.8	13.6	3.25	16.7	17.3	-0.66
Morris Peterson	46	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.20	-8	7	-15	16.1	13.8	2.26	16.9	17.2	-0.29
Donyell Marshall	78	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-2	3	15.1	14.2	0.88	17.1	16.9	0.21
Alvin Williams	77	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.49	-2	1	-3	15.0	15.1	-0.10	17.3	15.7	1.56
Vince Carter	43	44	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.64	3	-4	7	14.1	15.7	-1.61	17.1	16.9	0.20
Chris Bosh	59	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.43	-6	5	-11	14.0	16.8	-2.81	17.0	17.0	0.05
Jalen Rose	70	69	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.59	-7	6	-13	13.7	19.2	-5.46	16.8	18.0	-1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.67,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.69,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 87, HOU 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.9,0.72,0.77,0.74,0	90.2%
WAS 100, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.54,0.78,0.85,0.66,0.62,0.46,0.43,0.73,0	89.7%
LAL 111, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.67,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.55,0.84,0	89.5%