NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	87		Excitement	8.9 [158]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +19.3%
Houston Rockets	85		Comeback	15.4 [48]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): -38.2%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,0.19	-0.02	0.24	0.03	23	54%	0.32	3	-0.13	8	87%	0.13
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.00	9	50%	0.10	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	7	44%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	10	32%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	0.00	6	33%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	20	44%	-0.13	1	-0.01	12	67%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.02	0.02	16	71%	0.26	1	-0.13	10	80%	0.01
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.08	-0.00	9	56%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	16	58%	0.12	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.08	-0.00	2	50%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.10
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.13	-0.02	4	0%	-0.19	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.38	-0.38	-0.11	-0.26	0.00	18	41%	-0.16	3	-0.22	5	40%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.5	27.3	15.7	28.0	2.8	37.2	140.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -25.5%

SEA +29.3%

SEA +30.4%

SEA +14.3%

SEA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	HOU	NBA	SEA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.3	15.1	15.5	93.5	94.4	104.0
season	16.5	16.0		109.5	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.6		100.6	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	17.4	14.4	17.8	15.9	16.3
HOU	13.9	14.4	14.1	18.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome James	35	35	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.69	3	-1	4	16.0	16.5	-0.53	15.0	15.2	-0.25
Rashard Lewis	67	64	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.41	9	-7	16	15.9	17.3	-1.41	16.0	13.1	2.88
Ray Allen	73	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.56	-1	3	-4	16.8	14.5	2.34	14.9	16.0	-1.08
Vladimir Radmanovic	64	62	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	-3	8	15.4	18.3	-2.87	15.3	14.6	0.70
Luke Ridnour	74	75	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	-4	10	15.8	18.5	-2.69	14.8	16.7	-1.93
Vitaly Potapenko	36	35	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.08	4	-2	6	15.7	16.7	-1.00	14.8	15.3	-0.48
Reggie Evans	48	47	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	4	-6	18.0	14.6	3.44	15.0	15.2	-0.17
Nick Collison	17	16	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.05	-5	7	-12	18.9	15.8	3.12	14.6	15.2	-0.60
Antonio Daniels	51	47	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.05	-9	11	-20	16.3	16.4	-0.09	15.2	15.1	0.10

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Barrett	40	43	0.37	-0.87	1.23	0.13	8	-10	18	14.4	15.7	-1.26	16.9	15.8	1.07
Ryan Bowen	12	15	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.17	12	-14	26	13.4	15.4	-1.97	16.1	16.4	-0.32
Yao Ming	65	66	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.17	11	-13	24	14.0	17.9	-3.87	17.6	13.2	4.44
Juwan Howard	66	64	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.30	11	-13	24	14.1	17.9	-3.75	17.4	14.0	3.39
Rod Strickland	24	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	5	-12	15.5	15.0	0.46	17.2	16.0	1.13
Scott Padgett	24	27	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	10	-22	17.9	14.1	3.75	14.7	17.0	-2.24
David Wesley	69	71	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.55	0	-2	2	14.9	15.9	-1.02	16.3	16.5	-0.28
Jon Barry	47	48	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	3	-8	15.9	14.3	1.61	15.3	17.4	-2.11
Dikembe Mutombo	25	26	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.31	-12	10	-22	17.9	14.0	3.87	13.6	17.4	-3.83
Tracy McGrady	78	80	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.41	-16	14	-30	15.4	13.4	1.97	16.0	18.3	-2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.9,0.72,0.77,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 83, PHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.76,0.71,0	93.2%
NYK 100, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.68,0.58,0	91.7%
TOR 92, MEM 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.72,0.59,0.75,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.88,0.75,0.71,0.55,0.73,0	91.5%