NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	92		Excitement	8.2 [218]		MVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): +24.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	87		Comeback	16.3 [68]		LVP	Drew Gooden (MEM): -38.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.24	0.00	0.24	-0.00	17	51%	0.27	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.02
Michael Bradley	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	12	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.18,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.12,-0.23,-0.23	-0.15	-0.07	0.01	14	39%	-0.16	3	-0.07	8	50%	-0.05
Vince Carter	-0.34	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.34,-0.34	-0.06	-0.26	0.02	25	48%	-0.13	3	-0.21	6	67%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	6	85%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike Batiste	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	7	71%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	-0.05	0.01	8	87%	0.18	1	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.06	-0.00	11	36%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	6	46%	-0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	13	39%	-0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.38	-0.38	-0.16	-0.23	-0.00	17	25%	-0.36	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	2.5	28.2	15.8	25.0	1.8	30.5	124.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +8.1%

TOR +15.3%

TOR +22.7%

TOR +8.5%

MEM -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MEM	NBA	TOR	MEM	NBA
this game	15.1	16.7	15.5	102.2	95.6	101.6
season	16.2	15.3		98.8	101.8
opponent	15.2	15.3		105.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.2	16.1	14.5	16.9	15.1
MEM	16.1	13.9	19.0	18.2	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	74	74	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.43	18	-13	31	14.0	20.1	-6.02	16.8	16.3	0.50
Antonio Davis	72	72	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.39	12	-7	19	14.5	17.4	-2.92	16.6	16.9	-0.31
Alvin Williams	77	79	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	2	1	15.6	12.2	3.46	16.9	15.4	1.48
Morris Peterson	76	79	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	1	3	14.7	17.4	-2.74	16.8	16.1	0.71
Michael Bradley	42	43	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.40	-3	8	-11	16.0	14.3	1.71	16.0	17.3	-1.33
Greg Foster	35	36	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	1	3	15.5	14.9	0.61	18.1	15.8	2.28
Jermaine Jackson	34	33	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	8	-11	16.4	14.3	2.04	16.6	16.8	-0.20
Jelani McCoy	31	31	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	8	-11	14.8	15.3	-0.46	16.2	16.9	-0.72
Chris Jefferies	9	8	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.06	-7	12	-19	18.4	14.7	3.70	13.5	17.0	-3.51

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	35	35	0.45	-0.95	1.39	0.10	12	-17	29	15.7	17.3	-1.65	16.1	14.5	1.59
Mike Batiste	32	31	0.40	-0.90	1.31	0.14	9	-14	23	16.0	17.1	-1.13	16.3	14.5	1.85
Stromile Swift	38	38	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.13	8	-13	21	15.7	17.4	-1.66	16.3	14.2	2.13
Lorenzen Wright	37	37	0.36	-0.86	1.21	0.06	10	-15	25	16.2	17.1	-0.91	15.8	14.7	1.10
Gordan Giricek	45	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.09	-5	0	-5	17.1	16.3	0.72	15.5	14.7	0.85
Wesley Person	46	46	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.44	0	-5	5	16.3	17.1	-0.72	14.7	15.5	-0.85
Drew Gooden	52	51	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.45	-11	6	-17	16.9	16.4	0.51	14.4	16.0	-1.61
Shane Battier	59	59	-0.90	0.40	-1.31	-0.49	-14	9	-23	17.1	16.0	1.13	14.5	16.3	-1.85
Jason Williams	56	55	-0.95	0.45	-1.39	-0.45	-17	12	-29	17.3	15.7	1.65	14.5	16.1	-1.59
Pau Gasol	55	54	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.45	-17	12	-29	17.5	15.4	2.08	14.5	16.1	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.72,0.59,0.75,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.88,0.75,0.71,0.55,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 81, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.69,0.72,0	92.0%
DAL 101, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.75,0.79,0.32,0.58,0	91.7%
SEA 87, HOU 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.9,0.72,0.77,0.74,0	91.5%