NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	121		Excitement	9.7 [103]		MVP	Tobias Harris (DET): +19.5%
Charlotte Hornets	123		Comeback	3.1 [366]		LVP	Malik Beasley (DET): -28.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.19	0.18	0.02	0.01	16	81%	0.28	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	93%	0.11	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Jalen Duren	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	3	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	55%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Wendell Moore Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.05	0.03	2	117%	0.05	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Sasser	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cade Cunningham	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.16,-0.18,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31,-0.31,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	0.01	0.06	26	44%	-0.01	5	-0.13	9	78%	0.07
Jaden Ivey	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.23,-0.25,-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	11	39%	-0.13	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.07
Malik Beasley	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28	0.01	-0.29	0.01	15	50%	-0.26	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.08	-0.00	27	56%	0.26	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.01
Cody Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	8	94%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Miller	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.02,0.04	0.04	0.14	-0.14	-0.04	26	73%	0.36	7	-0.32	0	0%	0.00
Tidjane Salaun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	10	50%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Moussa Diabate	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	2	14%	-0.10	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.14
Tre Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	10	23%	-0.08	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	29.8	2.0	26.1	15.5	25.4	1.7	34.0	2.7	21.6	158.6
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	2.3	15.6	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +83.5%

DET -20.6%

CHA +8.0%

DET -16.6%

DET -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHA	NBA	DET	CHA	NBA
this game	14.2	16.0	14.4	114.2	117.1	113.1
season	14.1	15.0		113.7	106.2
opponent	14.2	14.5		115.2	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	14.5	12.7	16.7	14.8	10.9	14.2
CHA	14.3	16.1	17.6	16.5	15.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Simone Fontecchio	43	44	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.39	19	-21	40	13.3	14.8	-1.48	15.8	16.1	-0.30
Ronald Holland II	27	26	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.10	7	-9	16	14.0	14.2	-0.26	16.7	15.8	0.88
Marcus Sasser	16	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-5	8	14.2	14.2	0.03	20.8	15.2	5.61
Cade Cunningham	72	72	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	1	-4	14.9	12.6	2.31	15.6	16.9	-1.38
Isaiah Stewart	57	53	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.39	10	-12	22	13.7	14.7	-1.07	17.2	14.7	2.46
Malik Beasley	69	69	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.43	11	-13	24	13.6	15.2	-1.54	16.4	15.1	1.34
Wendell Moore Jr.	43	40	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-3	4	13.2	14.8	-1.60	17.0	15.3	1.71
Tobias Harris	64	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	5	-12	13.5	15.2	-1.67	15.4	17.0	-1.58
Jaden Ivey	49	50	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.19	-10	8	-18	14.9	13.5	1.41	15.1	16.8	-1.66
Jalen Duren	48	51	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.01	-17	15	-32	14.9	13.5	1.38	14.7	17.2	-2.54
Tim Hardaway Jr.	42	41	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.14	-24	22	-46	15.7	13.2	2.53	15.0	16.6	-1.58

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Moussa Diabate	63	62	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.66	-1	3	-4	16.8	14.8	2.05	14.7	13.4	1.28
Brandon Miller	85	86	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.34	9	-7	16	15.8	16.9	-1.19	13.7	16.2	-2.58
Grant Williams	80	80	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	-2	6	15.6	17.1	-1.43	14.5	13.2	1.23
Taj Gibson	18	17	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	-6	14	12.4	16.7	-4.35	16.6	13.7	2.96
Tre Mann	41	40	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.51	-9	11	-20	17.8	14.8	3.02	13.1	14.8	-1.62
LaMelo Ball	63	66	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.21	12	-10	22	15.4	16.8	-1.37	15.1	12.6	2.55
Cody Martin	72	72	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.44	-13	15	-28	16.3	15.2	1.09	13.1	16.4	-3.36
Josh Green	62	65	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	-1	4	15.2	17.2	-1.99	14.3	14.0	0.26
Tidjane Salaun	25	26	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	4	-6	17.1	15.6	1.43	13.2	14.5	-1.23
Seth Curry	16	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	3	-4	17.1	15.8	1.26	15.1	14.0	1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.77,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.78,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.54,0.68,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 85, MIA 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.56,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.86,0.97,1	90.4%
MIL 100, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.75,0.85,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.58,1	88.7%
MEM 89, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.91,1	88.4%