NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	9.1 [117]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +41.1%
Indiana Pacers	103		Comeback	1.5 [666]		LVP	Toni Kukoc (MIL): -27.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.41	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.06,0.23,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.41	-0.01	0.43	0.00	20	53%	0.54	3	-0.13	5	80%	0.02
Michael Redd	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.05	0.07	13	64%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Jason Caffey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kevin Ollie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.06	0.01	5	80%	0.05	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.26,-0.21	-0.06	-0.16	-0.01	17	48%	-0.18	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.03
Toni Kukoc	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	9	29%	-0.20	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.09

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.12,0.24	0.24	0.02	0.22	-0.00	14	58%	0.26	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.16
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	5	81%	0.11	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	11	48%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	10	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	21	50%	-0.04	5	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.01	-0.17	0.02	9	59%	-0.14	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	12	35%	-0.14	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.6	2.5	28.7	15.8	28.1	2.4	34.0	1.7	18.1	152.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -43.7%

IND +46.9%

IND +36.5%

IND +2.9%

IND +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	14.8	15.5	15.5	94.3	99.0	101.6
season	15.4	15.4		106.3	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.8		99.2	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	14.5	14.7	16.5	14.1	13.1	14.8
IND	12.0	15.3	16.3	18.6	16.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Ollie	28	28	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.15	6	-9	15	15.8	14.4	1.45	16.5	15.2	1.36
Ervin Johnson	15	14	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-5	7	14.0	14.9	-0.88	14.7	15.7	-0.95
Jason Caffey	45	43	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-13	23	14.1	15.3	-1.20	16.6	14.8	1.82
Michael Redd	70	68	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.51	14	-17	31	14.1	15.9	-1.80	16.6	13.5	3.12
Tim Thomas	43	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.19	-13	10	-23	15.6	14.2	1.47	13.8	16.8	-3.03
Dan Gadzuric	37	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	4	-11	16.1	14.0	2.08	13.7	16.5	-2.82
Toni Kukoc	69	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.42	4	-7	11	14.0	16.1	-2.08	16.5	13.7	2.82
Ray Allen	78	77	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.34	-3	0	-3	14.8	14.6	0.20	15.3	16.2	-0.87
Sam Cassell	78	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.25	-9	6	-15	14.4	15.8	-1.45	15.2	16.5	-1.36
Anthony Mason	67	65	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.26	-19	16	-35	15.4	13.6	1.76	15.3	15.9	-0.53

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	64	67	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.64	2	1	1	15.0	16.4	-1.40	15.0	14.3	0.67
Jermaine O'Neal	86	85	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.20	15	-12	27	15.9	13.9	1.93	15.1	13.4	1.71
Jonathan Bender	42	42	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	-5	13	14.8	16.0	-1.18	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Metta World Peace	87	90	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	0	3	15.2	17.1	-1.89	14.6	15.4	-0.80
Jamaal Tinsley	80	83	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.32	-5	8	-13	15.5	15.6	-0.11	14.7	14.9	-0.20
Al Harrington	82	81	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.10	9	-6	15	15.9	14.3	1.55	14.9	14.2	0.73
Ron Mercer	62	64	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.34	-10	13	-23	16.2	14.6	1.58	14.4	15.3	-0.92
Jeff Foster	17	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.16	-7	10	-17	15.4	15.6	-0.15	14.3	14.9	-0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.75,0.85,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 84, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.91,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.77,0.59,1	92.0%
CHI 105, TOR 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.83,0.81,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.55,0.41,1	90.5%
HOU 101, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.98,0.93,0.94,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.84,1	89.5%