NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	105		Excitement	11.3 [26]		MVP	Mamadou N'diaye (TOR): +15.1%
Toronto Raptors	109		Comeback	2.5 [376]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (CHI): -21.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.03,0.08	-0.11	0.19	-0.01	27	41%	0.16	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.02
Eddy Curry	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	5	92%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	6	54%	0.01	4	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jay Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.23,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.03	0.00	11	42%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.06
Lonny Baxter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	7	21%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	5	20%	-0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	4	27%	-0.14	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.03
Donyell Marshall	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,-0.22	0.10	-0.30	0.01	22	64%	-0.19	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.30

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mamadou N'diaye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.10	0.01	5	75%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.08
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.01	17	57%	0.13	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.14,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,0.06	0.06	-0.08	0.13	-0.01	18	52%	0.24	5	-0.19	8	87%	0.01
Chris Jefferies	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.03	0.00	8	41%	-0.00	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.11
Jerome Williams	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	11	46%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.26,-0.14,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	-0.01	19	53%	0.05	2	-0.16	9	67%	-0.04
Jelani McCoy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	10	18%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.3	2.4	25.3	16.6	24.0	1.6	34.3	1.8	25.2	158.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +30.5%

TOR +59.2%

CHI -38.8%

CHI -1.4%

TOR +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	14.2	14.6	15.5	94.6	99.1	101.6
season	15.0	16.2		98.3	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.1		105.1	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	15.3	14.8	14.3	12.9	12.9	14.2
TOR	15.3	14.0	13.4	17.7	11.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddy Curry	22	22	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.05	6	-10	16	15.3	13.9	1.36	18.6	13.6	5.05
Eddie Robinson	38	36	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-9	14	11.9	15.3	-3.40	14.5	14.6	-0.11
Corie Blount	55	57	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-8	12	13.9	14.4	-0.50	14.1	15.1	-0.95
Marcus Fizer	17	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-2	0	12.9	14.4	-1.53	12.2	15.0	-2.75
Jamal Crawford	49	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-9	14	12.6	15.4	-2.81	14.3	14.8	-0.49
Tyson Chandler	34	34	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	0	-4	16.0	13.4	2.62	16.6	13.7	2.84
Fred Hoiberg	61	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.34	8	-12	20	12.8	15.8	-3.02	14.1	15.2	-1.02
Lonny Baxter	12	11	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	2	-8	15.7	14.0	1.67	12.5	14.8	-2.38
Jalen Rose	75	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	4	-12	15.3	11.9	3.39	14.4	15.1	-0.71
Donyell Marshall	81	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.37	-4	0	-4	13.5	16.0	-2.49	13.7	16.9	-3.12
Jay Williams	62	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	5	-14	15.4	12.6	2.81	14.8	14.3	0.49
Trenton Hassell	50	48	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.18	-17	13	-30	15.3	13.2	2.11	15.3	14.1	1.19

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	86	85	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-8	20	14.2	15.9	-1.63	15.2	10.7	4.50
Morris Peterson	63	63	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	1	2	15.1	13.9	1.16	14.4	13.9	0.46
Lindsey Hunter	70	72	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	3	-2	14.0	15.6	-1.65	12.6	17.1	-4.47
Alvin Williams	90	93	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.32	0	4	-4	15.3	11.5	3.79	14.8	11.1	3.66
Jelani McCoy	53	52	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	-2	8	17.1	12.3	4.85	16.4	12.3	4.11
Mamadou N'diaye	53	55	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.28	-4	8	-12	12.5	16.6	-4.07	12.4	15.9	-3.53
Jerome Williams	91	89	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	0	4	14.8	13.4	1.43	14.6	12.3	2.32
Michael Bradley	22	24	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.19	-2	6	-8	13.3	14.9	-1.66	13.0	14.5	-1.56
Chris Jefferies	22	22	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	4	-4	13.0	15.0	-2.00	10.9	15.0	-4.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.83,0.81,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.55,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 100, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.75,0.85,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.58,1	90.5%
BOS 84, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.91,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.77,0.59,1	90.3%
NJN 93, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.72,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.45,0.57,0.42,1	89.3%