NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	89		Excitement	4.8 [472]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +30.1%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	6.8 [229]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -12.4%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared McCain	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	16	62%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Embiid	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.05	11	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	13	51%	0.04	3	-0.04	9	78%	-0.00
Adem Bona	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Guerschon Yabusele	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Council IV	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	3	67%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Dowtin Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	8	31%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	8	47%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.26	0.11	0.06	12	81%	0.30	0	0.00	13	100%	0.07
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.03	-0.04	15	53%	0.15	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.02	7	71%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	5	90%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	6	29%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	6	25%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	14	43%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.01	8	31%	-0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	26.6	18.6	28.2	1.8	26.0	130.0
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +6.8%

MIA +23.0%

MIA +16.1%

MIA +6.4%

PHI -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	13.7	14.4	14.4	85.6	105.0	112.4
season	15.3	14.9		110.2	111.3
opponent	14.5	14.2		111.3	114.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	12.2	13.9	15.7	12.9	13.7
MIA	12.6	15.5	13.0	17.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	31	30	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.20	13	-30	43	10.7	14.9	-4.21	13.3	14.9	-1.58
Jeff Dowtin Jr.	46	44	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.25	10	-27	37	12.2	14.8	-2.59	14.3	14.5	-0.19
Adem Bona	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	13.0	13.7	-0.68	22.0	14.4	7.63
Kelly Oubre Jr.	61	59	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.13	4	-21	25	12.5	15.3	-2.79	13.8	15.4	-1.56
Ricky Council IV	17	17	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.05	-3	-14	11	13.8	13.6	0.12	16.9	14.0	2.93
Guerschon Yabusele	19	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	-11	5	13.9	13.6	0.35	15.9	14.2	1.73
Eric Gordon	33	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.07	-3	-14	11	12.6	14.2	-1.59	15.0	14.2	0.74
Paul George	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.14	-18	1	-19	13.7	13.6	0.08	14.1	15.2	-1.07
Kyle Lowry	38	38	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.10	-18	1	-19	16.0	12.3	3.72	14.1	14.7	-0.63
Jared McCain	80	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.12	-19	2	-21	13.7	13.5	0.27	14.6	14.1	0.46
Joel Embiid	62	63	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	0.03	-21	4	-25	15.1	11.6	3.51	15.1	13.4	1.68
Caleb Martin	60	57	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	0.11	-24	7	-31	14.9	12.0	2.92	14.0	15.0	-0.94

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	68	69	0.68	-0.18	0.86	-0.17	29	-12	41	13.9	15.6	-1.68	15.3	10.3	5.00
Alec Burks	38	39	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.15	27	-10	37	15.5	13.8	1.69	14.1	13.4	0.74
Haywood Highsmith	67	69	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.05	21	-4	25	13.6	16.1	-2.43	14.2	12.6	1.56
Dru Smith	49	51	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.13	23	-6	29	15.8	13.2	2.58	13.7	13.6	0.04
Tyler Herro	70	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	5	7	14.2	14.9	-0.71	13.5	14.0	-0.54
Bam Adebayo	66	67	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	6	5	14.8	13.7	1.08	14.2	12.7	1.53
Kevin Love	34	35	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	11	-5	13.5	14.9	-1.43	12.7	14.2	-1.52
Duncan Robinson	46	47	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	15	-13	13.3	15.4	-2.18	14.4	13.0	1.39
Kel'el Ware	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	22.0	14.4	7.63	13.0	13.7	-0.68
Nikola Jovic	16	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.03	-2	19	-21	15.5	14.2	1.25	12.3	13.9	-1.61
Josh Richardson	32	33	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.30	-21	38	-59	16.0	13.7	2.32	11.0	14.9	-3.90
Pelle Larsson	18	20	-0.46	0.96	-1.43	0.21	-23	40	-63	13.8	14.6	-0.74	9.5	14.7	-5.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.83,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 99, LAL 128	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.58,0.68,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%
DEN 105, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.35,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.1%
SAC 93, DAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%