NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	6.7 [136]		MVP	Myles Turner (IND): +29.2%
Indiana Pacers	119		Comeback	1.1 [196]		LVP	Haywood Highsmith (MIA): -16.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.16	0.05	-0.01	10	87%	0.29	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Tyler Herro	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2	0.18	0.04	0.03	18	68%	0.22	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Bam Adebayo	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.04	-0.03	18	59%	0.19	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Kevin Love	0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	9	58%	0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Josh Richardson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	12	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Myles Turner	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.29	0.29	0.24	0.04	-0.02	23	72%	0.32	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.18	0.04	0.01	11	92%	0.27	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.08	0.02	10	75%	0.22	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.05
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	13	52%	0.15	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Quenton Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarace Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	7	35%	-0.03	3	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	26.5	15.3	29.5	2.5	33.7	135.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +38.4%

MIA -2.6%

IND +5.9%

IND +4.1%

IND +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	14.4	118.3	126.6	112.0
season	14.7	13.7		110.3	111.8
opponent	14.7	14.6		116.5	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	14.7	17.3	15.2	15.9
IND	13.5	14.7	14.0	17.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	59	60	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.27	10	-19	29	14.6	18.2	-3.60	16.0	12.9	3.09
Josh Richardson	46	46	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-10	11	15.1	16.7	-1.59	15.4	14.4	1.02
Nikola Jovic	61	61	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.27	5	-14	19	14.7	18.2	-3.55	15.8	13.4	2.39
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	30	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	-3	-3	15.3	16.2	-0.92	14.7	15.0	-0.31
Haywood Highsmith	43	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.01	-9	0	-9	16.9	15.0	1.93	14.0	15.8	-1.81
Kevin Love	24	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	3	-15	18.7	14.9	3.74	12.7	15.6	-3.00
Bam Adebayo	75	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	0	-9	16.1	15.1	0.97	15.2	13.7	1.48
Tyler Herro	73	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.19	-10	1	-11	16.3	14.4	1.90	14.8	15.3	-0.55
Terry Rozier	54	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.15	-15	6	-21	16.9	14.5	2.33	13.9	16.3	-2.38

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrese Haliburton	75	73	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.18	19	-10	29	14.7	15.9	-1.23	16.0	15.4	0.63
Bennedict Mathurin	75	73	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.17	18	-9	27	14.6	16.0	-1.36	16.1	15.2	0.88
Myles Turner	77	75	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.18	11	-2	13	15.2	13.7	1.48	16.1	15.1	0.97
Pascal Siakam	67	67	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-1	11	14.9	14.9	0.04	16.1	15.3	0.87
Ben Sheppard	50	49	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	3	3	13.2	16.8	-3.62	17.2	14.5	2.69
T.J. McConnell	45	44	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.22	-2	11	-13	16.6	13.4	3.19	14.6	17.1	-2.51
Jarace Walker	32	33	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	12	-15	15.5	14.6	0.89	14.7	16.5	-1.85
Quenton Jackson	12	14	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.08	-9	18	-27	17.5	14.5	2.96	14.8	16.1	-1.30
Obi Toppin	37	37	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	14	-19	14.3	15.3	-0.97	15.8	15.9	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.84,0.97,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 91, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.71,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.73,0.89,0.79,0.98,1,1	93.1%
GSW 91, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.66,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.97,1	93.1%
MIA 103, HOU 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.79,0.76,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.83,0.83,0.92,0.98,0.99,1	93.0%