NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	107		Excitement	7.0 [432]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAC): +26.1%
Sacramento Kings	122		Comeback	2.9 [690]		LVP	Gradey Dick (TOR): -7.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ochai Agbaji	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	9	57%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Chris Boucher	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.01	0.02	11	77%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.03	0.04	11	83%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	8	62%	0.14	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Shead	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	45%	0.06	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jonathan Mogbo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Bruno Fernando	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ja'Kobe Walter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamison Battle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	43%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.07	-0.00	19	53%	0.05	3	-0.11	5	80%	-0.00
Gradey Dick	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	10	32%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.10	0.15	-0.01	21	60%	0.34	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.06	0.02	6	100%	0.22	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.04	0.02	17	61%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Keon Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	4	73%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	12	45%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Kevin Huerter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	69%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Colby Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.02	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Jordan McLaughlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	0.05	17	48%	-0.00	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	0.3	28.1	15.4	30.6	2.6	29.0	130.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -2.5%

SAC +33.9%

SAC +14.1%

SAC +18.6%

TOR -13.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	15.7	14.5	14.4	113.8	125.8	113.1
season	13.9	14.3		109.0	115.1
opponent	14.6	14.6		114.9	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.5	14.3	14.9	18.2	15.7
SAC	13.3	16.2	12.9	16.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ja'Kobe Walter	14	18	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.10	8	-23	31	14.4	15.9	-1.46	15.3	14.3	0.95
Jonathan Mogbo	34	38	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.04	4	-19	23	15.3	15.9	-0.64	14.6	14.4	0.21
Jamison Battle	29	28	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.07	0	-15	15	16.8	15.2	1.62	15.7	14.0	1.75
Bruno Fernando	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-15	15	17.7	15.6	2.06	20.5	14.2	6.25
Jamal Shead	29	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-14	13	16.6	15.3	1.27	15.9	13.9	1.97
Chris Boucher	46	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-14	13	15.9	15.5	0.39	15.0	14.0	1.06
Davion Mitchell	66	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	-1	-13	15.0	17.1	-2.10	13.8	16.2	-2.38
RJ Barrett	68	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-6	-3	15.4	16.4	-1.04	13.7	16.6	-2.95
Jakob Poeltl	70	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	3	-21	15.5	16.2	-0.78	14.0	15.8	-1.83
Gradey Dick	47	46	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.01	-22	7	-29	16.3	15.0	1.26	14.5	14.5	0.07
Ochai Agbaji	64	65	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.03	-22	7	-29	15.7	15.6	0.15	14.4	14.6	-0.18

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Lyles	21	20	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	6	3	16.0	14.1	1.97	16.5	15.4	1.12
DeMar DeRozan	72	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	0	15	14.9	13.4	1.54	16.0	14.8	1.25
Keon Ellis	44	43	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.00	15	0	15	15.8	13.4	2.40	16.1	15.3	0.78
Domantas Sabonis	70	68	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.15	16	-1	17	13.7	16.5	-2.74	15.4	16.5	-1.15
Malik Monk	44	44	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.15	5	10	-5	13.9	15.0	-1.05	15.6	15.7	-0.11
De'Aaron Fox	70	71	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.02	9	6	3	13.3	17.6	-4.28	15.7	15.7	0.02
Alex Len	27	26	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.21	-1	16	-17	16.5	13.7	2.74	16.5	15.4	1.15
Keegan Murray	74	72	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	9	-3	13.6	17.4	-3.78	15.4	16.6	-1.26
Jordan McLaughlin	7	6	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	12	-9	20.9	14.0	6.85	17.2	15.6	1.60
Doug McDermott	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	20.5	14.2	6.25	17.7	15.6	2.06
Colby Jones	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	18.5	14.4	4.08	10.0	15.7	-5.73
Isaac Jones	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	18.5	14.4	4.08	10.0	15.7	-5.73
Kevin Huerter	48	47	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.11	-2	17	-19	13.9	15.1	-1.16	14.8	16.5	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.48,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.89,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 91, MIA 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.52,0.73,0.69,0.85,0.87,0.98,1,1,1,1	91.8%
POR 101, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	91.5%
MIN 103, WAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.93,1,1,1	91.4%