NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	111		Excitement	6.8 [93]		MVP	Jarace Walker (IND): +34.7%
Indiana Pacers	118		Comeback	1.3 [138]		LVP	Franz Wagner (ORL): -9.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Black	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.11	-0.01	7	60%	0.22	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	4	90%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Moritz Wagner	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.01	8	61%	0.16	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.01	10	62%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tristan da Silva	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	10	68%	0.10	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Jett Howard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Franz Wagner	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.15,-0.1	0.02	-0.07	0.04	23	52%	-0.01	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarace Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.20	0.16	0.01	7	121%	0.35	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.28	0.28	0.10	0.17	-0.01	11	71%	0.32	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.02	-0.03	7	71%	0.18	2	-0.03	14	93%	0.03
Ben Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.01	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.01	13	55%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	107%	0.22	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.06	-0.00	17	44%	0.08	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	31%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.4	30.5	14.6	29.2	1.8	34.0	139.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +57.8%

ORL -6.4%

ORL -11.4%

IND +12.2%

ORL -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	15.6	14.1	14.4	114.4	121.6	112.0
season	15.1	13.6		108.2	111.7
opponent	15.0	14.2		116.2	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.1	14.3	16.5	14.3	15.6
IND	11.0	14.5	14.2	17.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Moritz Wagner	31	30	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.11	-3	-4	1	15.4	15.6	-0.20	13.8	14.3	-0.44
Gary Harris	32	30	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-5	3	15.2	15.7	-0.46	12.6	14.8	-2.22
Jett Howard	6	7	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-4	1	18.0	15.4	2.60	10.0	14.5	-4.46
Jonathan Isaac	32	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-8	9	14.3	16.2	-1.90	14.7	13.9	0.82
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	72	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.45	5	-12	17	15.5	15.8	-0.33	14.9	11.8	3.03
Tristan da Silva	47	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	3	-13	16.7	14.5	2.22	13.9	14.4	-0.51
Anthony Black	54	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-4	1	14.9	16.4	-1.59	15.1	12.9	2.25
Franz Wagner	78	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-6	5	15.6	15.4	0.17	14.4	12.8	1.67
Jalen Suggs	75	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	7	-21	15.3	16.5	-1.28	13.5	16.1	-2.62
Goga Bitadze	58	60	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.36	-5	-2	-3	16.4	14.3	2.13	14.0	14.3	-0.26

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrese Haliburton	73	74	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	1	5	14.2	14.1	0.07	15.4	16.0	-0.52
Jarace Walker	48	47	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	-1	9	14.5	13.8	0.64	15.6	15.5	0.03
Andrew Nembhard	62	62	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.32	5	2	3	14.4	13.7	0.75	15.6	15.5	0.11
Bennedict Mathurin	67	66	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	6	-5	14.6	13.2	1.35	15.7	15.4	0.30
Myles Turner	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.41	1	6	-5	14.4	13.5	0.90	15.6	15.5	0.10
Pascal Siakam	68	71	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.06	6	1	5	13.8	15.0	-1.24	15.3	16.4	-1.13
Obi Toppin	35	35	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.10	5	2	3	13.1	14.7	-1.55	15.9	15.4	0.56
T.J. McConnell	35	35	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	5	-3	13.7	14.4	-0.75	15.5	15.6	-0.11
Ben Sheppard	24	23	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	6	-5	14.1	14.2	-0.07	16.0	15.4	0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 81, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%
SAC 90, CLE 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,1	92.6%
PHI 87, MIA 106	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	92.4%