NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	81		Excitement	6.3 [434]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +16.7%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	1.6 [754]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -21.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.15	0.04	0.08	8	94%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	7	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Ryan Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.07	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	13	44%	0.00	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	14	42%	0.03	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.10	0.01	17	41%	-0.06	4	-0.15	10	40%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.04	0.13	0.00	25	54%	0.25	3	-0.08	7	71%	-0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.15	-0.02	0.04	13	74%	0.13	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.12	0.08	-0.03	14	39%	0.08	4	-0.10	8	75%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	1	125%	0.00	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.6	3.4	30.6	19.5	29.3	3.6	29.5	147.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.9%

MIA +10.3%

ORL -11.4%

MIA +28.4%

ORL -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.2	14.8	15.6	90.0	101.1	102.8
season	16.2	15.5		102.8	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		98.8	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	18.3	17.3	17.8	15.4	17.2
MIA	13.0	13.4	18.2	15.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	34	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-12	14	17.0	17.3	-0.32	14.8	14.9	-0.11
Glen Davis	38	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-12	14	17.3	17.1	0.26	15.5	14.4	1.11
Chris Duhon	24	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-8	6	18.3	16.7	1.59	15.6	14.5	1.08
Quentin Richardson	54	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.23	-1	-9	8	16.6	18.1	-1.48	15.4	13.9	1.53
Ryan Anderson	44	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-1	-8	17.1	17.2	-0.06	14.3	15.4	-1.10
Hedo Turkoglu	53	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	1	-12	17.6	16.5	1.11	14.3	15.6	-1.34
Jameer Nelson	66	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	-2	-6	16.7	18.3	-1.59	14.5	15.6	-1.08
Jason Richardson	60	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.07	-11	1	-12	17.3	16.9	0.45	14.5	15.6	-1.10
Dwight Howard	77	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.18	-12	2	-14	17.2	17.1	0.10	15.1	13.2	1.87

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	75	74	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.17	16	-6	22	14.4	16.8	-2.36	17.0	17.9	-0.94
Mario Chalmers	69	68	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.13	15	-5	20	14.3	16.4	-2.08	17.2	17.1	0.04
LeBron James	73	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.14	13	-3	16	14.7	15.5	-0.79	17.3	16.5	0.79
Chris Bosh	72	72	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.10	14	-4	18	14.1	17.7	-3.54	16.9	18.2	-1.32
Shane Battier	41	42	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	11	-12	15.0	14.7	0.26	16.2	18.0	-1.79
Joel Anthony	41	43	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	4	2	15.0	14.7	0.26	18.5	15.9	2.58
Udonis Haslem	30	29	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	9	-8	16.8	13.9	2.90	17.5	17.0	0.52
Dexter Pittman	7	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	12	-14	17.7	14.6	3.12	14.3	17.4	-3.04
Norris Cole	21	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	15	-20	16.4	14.3	2.08	17.1	17.2	-0.04
James Jones	21	21	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.02	-7	17	-24	14.9	14.8	0.09	17.6	17.0	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.96,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 95, POR 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	93.3%
ATL 94, NYK 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.96,1,0.99,1,1	93.1%
GSW 107, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	93.0%