NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	119		Excitement	10.1 [20]		MVP	Peyton Watson (DEN): +31.7%
Denver Nuggets	121		Comeback	33.1 [25]		LVP	RJ Barrett (TOR): -44.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.01	18	60%	0.21	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Ochai Agbaji	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.15	0.10	0.06	0.01	11	64%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jamal Shead	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	4	89%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jonathan Mogbo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	40%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Bruno Fernando	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ja'Kobe Walter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamison Battle	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.07	0.07	-0.13	0.01	11	57%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Gradey Dick	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.14	0.06	-0.18	0.02	20	62%	0.18	4	-0.32	2	100%	0.01
RJ Barrett	-0.44	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.1,-0.19,-0.44	-0.18	-0.27	-0.01	21	34%	-0.22	5	-0.22	5	80%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.09	0.23	0.00	7	70%	0.34	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.01
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.13	-0.00	10	54%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.08	0.02	11	65%	0.16	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	70%	0.18	4	-0.08	10	80%	0.05
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	16	54%	0.06	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.09,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.14	0.01	22	54%	0.13	7	-0.33	8	87%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.5	25.2	14.7	27.3	2.5	38.3	138.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +49.2%

DEN +14.2%

TOR -54.1%

DEN +29.4%

DEN +11.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	13.1	14.4	114.4	118.6	112.0
season	14.1	13.7		111.1	115.0
opponent	14.8	14.7		113.3	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.4	14.9	16.2	16.2	14.8
DEN	12.0	15.1	13.1	12.6	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ja'Kobe Walter	17	18	0.26	-0.59	0.85	-0.03	10	-12	22	16.4	14.6	1.84	15.2	12.7	2.50
Jamal Shead	37	37	0.14	-0.47	0.60	0.20	-2	0	-2	14.8	14.9	-0.10	13.1	13.1	0.00
Bruno Fernando	5	6	0.13	-0.46	0.58	-0.05	6	-8	14	16.4	14.8	1.60	16.5	12.9	3.60
Chris Boucher	29	29	0.11	-0.43	0.54	0.17	-2	0	-2	14.2	15.1	-0.93	14.2	12.7	1.58
Jakob Poeltl	72	70	0.02	-0.35	0.38	0.17	-5	3	-8	14.5	15.6	-1.10	12.7	14.1	-1.44
Jamison Battle	27	24	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	4	-10	16.0	14.4	1.52	13.2	13.1	0.19
Gradey Dick	76	77	-0.31	-0.02	-0.29	-0.34	1	-3	4	14.8	15.1	-0.27	13.1	13.2	-0.12
Ochai Agbaji	68	71	-0.32	-0.01	-0.31	-0.35	1	-3	4	14.6	15.4	-0.80	13.2	12.8	0.43
Davion Mitchell	66	65	-0.46	0.13	-0.60	-0.43	-1	-1	0	14.9	14.8	0.10	13.1	13.1	-0.00
Jonathan Mogbo	45	43	-0.48	0.16	-0.64	-0.37	-4	2	-6	15.6	14.3	1.21	12.5	13.6	-1.07
RJ Barrett	74	70	-0.61	0.28	-0.89	-0.37	-8	6	-14	14.5	15.9	-1.47	12.5	14.4	-1.94

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	62	65	0.66	-0.34	1.00	0.40	9	-7	16	12.9	13.5	-0.60	15.0	14.6	0.43
Christian Braun	78	78	0.50	-0.17	0.67	0.35	5	-3	8	12.6	14.7	-2.04	14.9	14.7	0.20
Michael Porter Jr.	78	75	0.35	-0.02	0.37	0.32	1	1	0	13.4	12.2	1.18	15.1	14.2	0.95
Nikola Jokic	81	82	0.31	0.02	0.29	0.34	-1	3	-4	12.8	14.4	-1.66	14.9	14.7	0.20
Julian Strawther	54	56	0.12	0.21	-0.09	0.15	-1	3	-4	12.9	13.3	-0.39	15.6	14.0	1.53
DeAndre Jordan	14	15	0.04	0.28	-0.24	-0.05	3	-1	4	13.6	13.0	0.54	12.8	15.2	-2.43
Aaron Gordon	12	11	0.03	0.30	-0.27	-0.00	1	1	0	11.0	13.4	-2.39	13.0	15.1	-2.10
Russell Westbrook	72	73	-0.11	0.44	-0.55	-0.02	-3	5	-8	13.5	12.2	1.24	14.1	16.9	-2.81
Zeke Nnaji	28	27	-0.12	0.45	-0.57	-0.06	-2	4	-6	14.9	12.4	2.51	15.8	14.6	1.23
Hunter Tyson	31	33	-0.13	0.46	-0.60	-0.08	-2	4	-6	13.4	13.0	0.45	15.2	14.7	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.26,0.25,0.16,0.27,0.37,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.14,0.06,0.1,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.15,0.37,0.33,0.73,1	91.7%
BOS 96, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.16,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.58,1	91.5%
MIN 91, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.16,0.72,1	91.4%