NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	123		Excitement	8.8 [186]		MVP	Naji Marshall (DAL): +30.9%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	5.5 [199]		LVP	Kyrie Irving (DAL): -28.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naji Marshall	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.31	0.17	0.14	0.00	15	81%	0.35	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Washington	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.1,0.1,0.25	0.02	0.25	0.02	15	59%	0.34	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.05
Dereck Lively II	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	4	92%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Quentin Grimes	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.08	0.02	9	70%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.06
Daniel Gafford	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.05	0.01	7	72%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	5	83%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jaden Hardy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	9	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Maxi Kleber	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.04	8	0%	-0.08	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.29,-0.28	-0.03	-0.26	-0.01	19	45%	-0.18	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21	0.21	0.05	0.15	-0.01	11	68%	0.27	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.04	0.02	12	65%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.03	0.02	9	71%	0.13	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.01
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	43%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Trey Alexander	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.01	13	52%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.05
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	16	41%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.04
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,-0.11,-0.06	-0.06	0.14	-0.18	0.02	22	65%	-0.00	3	-0.06	7	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	30.3	14.7	27.5	3.3	46.4	153.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +9.7%

DAL +36.5%

DAL +6.5%

DEN -3.5%

DAL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.6	14.9	14.4	121.8	118.8	113.1
season	14.3	14.0		113.3	118.4
opponent	14.6	14.4		114.7	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	11.5	13.5	17.8	12.1	13.6
DEN	14.2	15.3	13.5	16.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Naji Marshall	55	55	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.68	8	-5	13	13.0	14.3	-1.26	15.2	14.5	0.69
Dereck Lively II	40	41	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.54	2	1	1	14.4	13.1	1.29	15.6	14.4	1.16
Quentin Grimes	62	62	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-5	13	13.4	13.9	-0.49	14.7	15.3	-0.59
Kyrie Irving	80	81	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	-3	9	13.6	13.7	-0.15	14.5	16.8	-2.34
P.J. Washington	74	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	-4	11	13.4	14.1	-0.76	15.1	14.3	0.88
Spencer Dinwiddie	35	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	6	-9	13.3	13.7	-0.38	16.0	14.4	1.60
Maxi Kleber	22	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.30	-11	14	-25	14.0	13.5	0.52	14.5	15.0	-0.54
Daniel Gafford	60	59	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.19	5	-2	7	13.3	14.0	-0.77	14.1	16.1	-2.01
Klay Thompson	50	52	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.36	9	-6	15	13.6	13.6	-0.03	14.9	15.0	-0.07
Jaden Hardy	27	25	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	0.15	-16	19	-35	15.4	12.9	2.47	15.5	14.7	0.74

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Alexander	4	4	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-9	15	19.0	14.8	4.25	12.7	13.6	-0.88
Hunter Tyson	4	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.03	-1	-2	1	16.2	14.9	1.38	13.5	13.6	-0.10
DeAndre Jordan	10	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-1	-1	17.4	14.6	2.75	13.0	13.7	-0.65
Julian Strawther	35	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-2	1	15.7	14.5	1.17	12.9	14.0	-1.12
Dario Saric	8	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	4	-11	15.1	14.9	0.22	13.9	13.6	0.31
Christian Braun	62	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.04	-9	6	-15	14.2	16.1	-1.84	14.5	12.2	2.30
Peyton Watson	83	85	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-5	7	14.9	15.1	-0.23	13.6	13.5	0.11
Nikola Jokic	84	84	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.42	4	-7	11	14.4	17.4	-2.92	13.6	13.4	0.22
Jamal Murray	83	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-3	3	14.9	15.1	-0.23	13.7	13.3	0.38
Russell Westbrook	56	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-3	3	15.4	14.3	1.14	13.0	14.4	-1.36
Michael Porter Jr.	76	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.33	-7	4	-11	14.8	15.4	-0.58	13.6	13.6	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.32,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.4,0.54,0.74,0.85,0.57,0.19,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 119, NOP 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.4,0.75,0.84,0.77,0.15,0	91.2%
DET 96, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.42,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.53,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.59,0	90.5%
POR 123, MEM 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.15,0	90.2%