NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	119		Excitement	7.5 [357]		MVP	Trey Murphy III (NOP): +20.5%
New Orleans Pelicans	112		Comeback	9.0 [164]		LVP	Herbert Jones (NOP): -19.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Giddey	0.19	0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.32,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.07	0.05	14	89%	0.31	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.16,0.11,0.11	-0.05	0.14	-0.01	6	46%	0.23	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	20	52%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	13	57%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jalen Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.04,0.09	0.12	-0.02	0.01	18	63%	0.20	2	-0.12	5	100%	0.01
Kenrich Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	1	150%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.11	0.03	10	76%	0.21	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Zion Williamson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	17	66%	0.22	5	-0.12	10	90%	0.05
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	24	45%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	55%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.19	-0.19	0.01	-0.19	0.01	12	53%	-0.02	2	-0.18	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.6	31.2	14.7	26.4	2.4	29.7	130.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +64.1%

NOP -17.9%

OKC +7.5%

NOP -5.7%

OKC +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	NOP	NBA	OKC	NOP	NBA
this game	14.0	14.9	14.5	119.0	113.1	113.9
season	13.9	14.4		117.1	114.8
opponent	14.7	14.7		111.0	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	11.9	12.8	15.7	16.3	14.0
NOP	14.3	14.3	14.3	17.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chet Holmgren	68	69	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.34	16	-9	25	14.0	14.1	-0.05	15.5	13.6	1.89
Jalen Williams	69	68	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-1	9	14.8	12.4	2.43	15.3	14.1	1.20
Luguentz Dort	66	65	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	0	7	14.9	12.3	2.63	14.8	15.1	-0.30
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	82	81	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-7	21	13.5	16.4	-2.94	14.7	16.0	-1.32
Josh Giddey	62	61	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	-2	11	14.9	12.6	2.30	15.4	14.2	1.19
Isaiah Joe	36	36	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	4	-1	12.7	14.8	-2.13	14.2	15.3	-1.18
Cason Wallace	28	30	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	7	-7	11.9	14.8	-2.92	14.8	15.0	-0.17
Kenrich Williams	37	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.15	4	3	1	14.0	14.0	-0.05	15.8	14.4	1.39
Jaylin Williams	30	28	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.02	-7	14	-21	13.6	14.2	-0.57	13.8	15.4	-1.53
Gordon Hayward	22	21	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.14	-19	26	-45	14.0	14.0	0.02	13.1	15.4	-2.25

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Naji Marshall	47	46	0.41	-0.91	1.32	-0.03	15	-22	37	14.9	15.0	-0.09	14.6	13.6	0.99
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	10	11	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.07	7	-14	21	11.7	15.3	-3.58	14.9	13.9	0.99
Jordan Hawkins	6	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-7	7	15.5	14.9	0.62	8.3	14.5	-6.18
Jose Alvarado	33	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-2	-3	16.1	14.3	1.80	13.2	14.5	-1.28
Jonas Valanciunas	25	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.12	-11	4	-15	15.2	14.8	0.43	11.2	14.9	-3.71
CJ McCollum	85	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.18	-7	0	-7	14.9	14.8	0.16	14.3	12.4	1.90
Zion Williamson	80	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-5	3	14.4	17.1	-2.71	14.1	13.8	0.23
Larry Nance Jr.	64	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-4	1	15.3	14.2	1.07	14.9	12.4	2.55
Trey Murphy III	80	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	1	-9	14.5	16.8	-2.31	14.5	12.0	2.51
Herbert Jones	65	66	-0.92	0.42	-1.33	-0.30	-21	14	-35	15.4	13.9	1.53	13.7	14.7	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.4,0.75,0.84,0.77,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 90, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.27,0	90.2%
DET 96, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.42,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.53,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.59,0	90.0%
SAS 87, BOS 86	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.29,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.63,0.68,0.16,0	89.6%