NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	7.0 [434]		MVP	Devin Vassell (SAS): +15.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Comeback	2.5 [904]		LVP	Zach Collins (SAS): -28.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.03	16	69%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	61%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Keldon Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.03	15	60%	0.14	4	-0.14	5	80%	0.02
Julian Champagnie	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tre Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malaki Branham	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Sochan	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.02	0.00	10	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	13	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Cedi Osman	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	8	33%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Zach Collins	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.16	-0.12	0.00	20	30%	-0.19	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	8	89%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Troy Brown Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.09	-0.02	9	44%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	93%	0.22	6	-0.18	3	67%	-0.02
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	18	42%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.05	13	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Edwards	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.05	-0.00	17	40%	0.02	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.00
Shake Milton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.5	28.3	15.2	25.7	3.4	30.3	133.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +52.9%

MIN +6.2%

SAS -9.7%

MIN +1.2%

SAS -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.1	14.5	94.0	101.0	113.9
season	13.9	14.9		108.6	114.4
opponent	14.7	14.3		108.3	115.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.0	13.4	14.6	13.3	14.6
MIN	11.8	13.7	15.4	15.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Champagnie	9	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.02	-1	-7	6	17.1	14.3	2.79	10.5	14.4	-3.90
Victor Wembanyama	69	70	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.13	4	-12	16	13.0	18.2	-5.20	14.3	13.7	0.55
Jeremy Sochan	45	44	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	-3	-2	16.3	13.1	3.21	13.8	14.3	-0.56
Doug McDermott	45	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.15	2	-10	12	14.9	14.3	0.54	15.0	13.4	1.57
Devin Vassell	65	68	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-12	16	12.8	17.9	-5.10	14.6	13.0	1.57
Malaki Branham	21	21	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	-1	-6	17.1	13.9	3.26	13.2	14.3	-1.07
Keldon Johnson	67	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-5	2	13.9	15.8	-1.91	14.1	14.0	0.09
Tre Jones	53	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	3	-14	15.2	13.9	1.28	14.1	14.1	-0.04
Zach Collins	59	59	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.17	-13	5	-18	15.7	12.9	2.79	13.6	14.8	-1.15
Cedi Osman	67	68	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.33	-10	2	-12	14.6	14.5	0.04	14.1	14.0	0.09

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gobert	63	62	1.09	-0.59	1.67	0.18	31	-23	54	14.3	13.8	0.52	15.3	13.3	2.02
Anthony Edwards	80	78	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.36	14	-6	20	13.7	15.5	-1.75	14.5	14.8	-0.32
Naz Reid	59	58	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-2	12	14.7	13.2	1.50	14.9	14.1	0.86
Mike Conley	71	70	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-1	10	14.0	14.3	-0.25	14.4	15.1	-0.71
Troy Brown Jr.	49	50	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	1	6	15.1	13.1	2.01	15.2	13.9	1.30
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	46	44	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	6	-4	12.7	15.3	-2.60	13.3	15.6	-2.28
Kyle Anderson	44	44	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.05	-7	15	-22	13.7	14.4	-0.64	15.3	14.0	1.25
Shake Milton	24	24	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.01	-12	20	-32	16.3	13.4	2.94	14.0	14.7	-0.75
Karl-Anthony Towns	69	70	-0.44	0.94	-1.37	-0.02	-14	22	-36	13.5	15.3	-1.75	14.0	16.0	-2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.41,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 92, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.96,0.97,1,1	93.0%
SAS 86, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.7,0.8,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%
MIN 88, LAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.68,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.3%