NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	6.1 [621]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +32.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	99		Comeback	2.6 [230]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (SAS): -19.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	7	67%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	9	62%	0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
George Hill	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Owens	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
James Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.03	2	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	13	54%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	18	45%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	11	27%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	6	44%	-0.02	4	-0.17	4	25%	-0.08

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.24	0.12	0.04	23	73%	0.36	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	13	64%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.06	16	57%	0.10	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
Chris Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	5	40%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	6	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	28.1	15.4	26.5	2.3	30.6	130.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -0.1%

POR +27.9%

POR +8.7%

POR +13.4%

POR +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	POR	NBA	SAS	POR	NBA
this game	17.5	17.0	15.5	103.6	117.9	105.7
season	15.5	16.5		109.3	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.2		105.6	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.6	15.0	19.0	17.3	17.5
POR	15.7	17.7	14.6	20.6	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Owens	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	10.5	17.6	-7.13	20.7	16.9	3.77
Chris Quinn	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	10.5	17.6	-7.13	20.7	16.9	3.77
Tiago Splitter	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-12	11	12.7	17.6	-4.97	21.2	16.8	4.42
James Anderson	4	4	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	-10	7	10.5	17.8	-7.31	21.2	16.8	4.42
Manu Ginobili	59	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-10	7	16.7	19.3	-2.58	16.7	17.8	-1.03
Tony Parker	54	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.01	-9	-4	-5	18.0	16.4	1.66	18.3	15.0	3.29
DeJuan Blair	45	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-10	7	16.9	18.1	-1.24	17.1	16.9	0.26
Tim Duncan	51	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-5	-3	18.0	16.5	1.51	17.6	16.2	1.42
Richard Jefferson	57	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-7	1	18.7	14.7	4.08	17.8	15.3	2.50
Antonio McDyess	51	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-3	-7	17.8	17.0	0.80	15.6	19.0	-3.37
Gary Neal	30	31	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-6	-1	17.7	17.3	0.33	14.5	18.5	-3.99
George Hill	57	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.01	-15	2	-17	17.2	18.1	-0.90	16.5	18.3	-1.80

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Cunningham	43	42	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.12	21	-8	29	15.8	18.3	-2.46	18.4	16.5	1.82
Rudy Fernandez	43	41	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.16	18	-5	23	16.3	17.8	-1.41	16.7	18.2	-1.43
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.02	18	-5	23	16.8	18.9	-2.03	17.7	15.5	2.17
Wesley Matthews	67	68	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	-2	17	17.9	13.6	4.32	17.6	16.9	0.72
Andre Miller	60	59	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.08	13	0	13	17.4	16.2	1.16	18.1	16.0	2.05
Patty Mills	24	24	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.19	0	13	-13	16.2	17.4	-1.16	16.0	18.1	-2.05
Chris Johnson	8	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	18	-23	18.9	16.8	2.03	15.5	17.7	-2.17
Nicolas Batum	62	61	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	17	-21	16.8	17.6	-0.75	17.3	17.8	-0.43
Joel Przybilla	37	37	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.03	-11	24	-35	18.0	16.3	1.68	17.2	17.7	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.7,0.8,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 83, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
DEN 91, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.7,0.76,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.7%
MEM 86, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.81,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.7%