NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	109		Excitement	7.9 [287]		MVP	Tyrese Maxey (PHI): +24.6%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	7.0 [157]		LVP	Caleb Martin (MIA): -17.8%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Maxey	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.25	0.22	0.05	0.03	26	69%	0.29	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2	0.04	0.15	-0.02	14	64%	0.28	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joel Embiid	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.11	0.08	-0.01	-0.05	25	53%	0.12	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.00
Cameron Payne	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	2	150%	0.14	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Paul Reed	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	6	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
KJ Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	10	55%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	17	51%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Nikola Jovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	9	55%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.08	0.00	7	86%	0.11	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.04	-0.05	15	45%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	5	46%	-0.02	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.12	0.01	20	52%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	7	41%	-0.04	3	-0.14	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.7	27.4	14.8	23.5	1.8	30.8	125.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +65.7%

MIA -12.2%

MIA -32.7%

PHI +27.9%

PHI +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	14.3	14.5	110.1	105.0	113.9
season	14.9	14.9		115.6	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.5		111.0	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	13.3	14.4	16.1	14.8	14.6
MIA	13.3	14.4	13.2	16.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrese Maxey	81	83	1.03	-0.53	1.56	0.27	26	-22	48	15.0	13.2	1.78	15.2	10.2	4.99
Kyle Lowry	68	68	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.51	11	-7	18	15.2	13.3	1.99	15.1	12.7	2.40
Paul Reed	31	32	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.05	23	-19	42	13.9	14.9	-1.01	16.7	13.2	3.53
Kelly Oubre Jr.	87	86	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.58	3	1	2	14.5	15.6	-1.09	14.1	15.8	-1.70
KJ Martin	45	46	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.46	-6	10	-16	13.8	15.4	-1.60	14.2	14.4	-0.15
Nicolas Batum	63	65	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.19	14	-10	24	15.4	13.2	2.21	14.8	13.4	1.42
Joel Embiid	68	68	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.33	-19	23	-42	14.9	13.9	1.01	13.2	16.7	-3.53
Buddy Hield	29	27	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	0.03	-16	20	-36	13.5	15.1	-1.62	11.6	15.3	-3.74
Cameron Payne	23	25	-0.58	1.08	-1.67	-0.11	-16	20	-36	13.1	15.1	-2.01	12.0	15.1	-3.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	44	43	0.80	-1.30	2.09	0.06	25	-29	54	13.3	15.1	-1.75	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Kevin Love	40	40	0.58	-1.08	1.67	-0.15	25	-29	54	14.3	14.3	-0.03	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Jimmy Butler	83	83	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.49	10	-14	24	14.3	14.4	-0.11	14.7	14.0	0.75
Caleb Martin	64	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.38	3	-7	10	14.4	14.1	0.28	14.2	15.3	-1.07
Nikola Jovic	40	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.11	-15	11	-26	14.3	14.3	0.01	15.7	13.9	1.80
Duncan Robinson	40	41	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	10	-24	14.4	14.2	0.17	15.1	14.3	0.80
Haywood Highsmith	59	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.49	-1	-3	2	14.9	13.4	1.53	14.2	15.3	-1.17
Terry Rozier	69	66	-1.08	0.58	-1.66	-0.37	-24	20	-44	14.5	14.0	0.51	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Bam Adebayo	61	59	-1.08	0.58	-1.67	-0.23	-29	25	-54	14.1	14.7	-0.57	14.7	14.4	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.16,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.2,0.32,0.54,0.7,0.82,0.62,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.39,0.16,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.66,0.53,0.47,0.28,0.23,0.02,0	88.6%
DEN 106, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.17,0.2,0.09,0.16,0.28,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.55,0.16,0.09,0	88.5%
LAL 106, NJN 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.5,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.67,0.62,0.37,0.16,0.17,0	88.3%