NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	7.9 [277]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +41.3%
LA Clippers	102		Comeback	5.0 [349]		LVP	Wilson Chandler (DEN): -17.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.14	0.28	0.00	16	73%	0.46	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.06
Will Barton	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.36	0.17	0.19	-0.00	14	70%	0.36	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	12	64%	0.12	2	-0.04	12	92%	0.06
Kenneth Faried	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	9	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	56%	0.04	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	10	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	4	69%	0.15	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.09	0.02	7	63%	0.15	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	7	56%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	23	52%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	17	54%	0.13	5	-0.18	1	100%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	14	36%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.0	30.0	14.6	26.2	2.5	31.6	130.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.1%

DEN +10.4%

DEN +13.1%

DEN +3.1%

DEN +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	13.4	15.1	14.8	103.9	102.0	107.7
season	14.4	15.0		111.6	110.8
opponent	14.8	14.5		106.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.1	11.7	13.2	13.4	13.4
LAC	12.5	18.3	15.1	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	69	69	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.47	17	-13	30	13.3	13.5	-0.21	15.7	13.8	1.87
Danilo Gallinari	80	79	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.53	10	-6	16	13.5	13.0	0.57	14.5	17.7	-3.21
Gary Harris	69	67	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.46	7	-3	10	12.8	14.8	-2.00	14.1	17.2	-3.06
Will Barton	64	64	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.30	7	-3	10	13.1	13.9	-0.87	16.6	12.6	4.02
Jameer Nelson	58	58	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.34	0	4	-4	14.3	12.2	2.03	16.2	13.6	2.61
Emmanuel Mudiay	44	42	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	0	4	12.2	14.3	-2.03	13.6	16.2	-2.61
Jamal Murray	23	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.11	-1	5	-6	13.9	13.3	0.66	18.7	14.1	4.61
Wilson Chandler	63	61	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.08	-7	11	-18	13.7	13.0	0.65	14.7	15.7	-1.01
Kenneth Faried	40	38	-0.53	1.03	-1.57	-0.04	-17	21	-38	14.2	12.9	1.35	13.4	16.2	-2.84

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	38	38	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.08	7	-11	18	17.7	13.5	4.16	14.4	12.8	1.54
Marreese Speights	30	32	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.08	5	-9	14	16.6	14.5	2.15	12.2	14.0	-1.82
Alan Anderson	19	19	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.13	0	-4	4	18.8	14.3	4.52	13.9	13.3	0.61
Wesley Johnson	44	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.13	-2	-2	0	12.2	17.4	-5.18	13.0	13.8	-0.78
Raymond Felton	62	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.18	-2	-2	0	16.5	12.9	3.65	13.6	13.1	0.50
Austin Rivers	90	92	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	0	-4	15.0	16.5	-1.52	12.9	18.2	-5.32
Luc Mbah a Moute	69	69	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.47	-7	3	-10	14.4	16.7	-2.34	14.0	12.1	1.98
Jamal Crawford	77	79	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.51	-6	2	-8	14.4	17.6	-3.16	13.0	14.9	-1.95
DeAndre Jordan	71	72	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.54	-11	7	-18	14.4	16.9	-2.49	14.0	12.1	1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.17,0.2,0.09,0.16,0.28,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.55,0.16,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 93, POR 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.37,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.45,0.27,0	90.2%
BOS 82, MIA 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.78,0.73,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.04,0	89.9%
TOR 95, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.37,0.26,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.55,0.23,0.09,0	89.0%