NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	95		Excitement	7.4 [385]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +62.8%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	3.9 [188]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -17.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.63	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.42,0.48,0.63	0.17	0.45	-0.01	19	75%	0.75	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.05
Patrick Patterson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	4	100%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	12	55%	0.07	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Bismack Biyombo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	75%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Norman Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	17	45%	0.05	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.06
Luis Scola	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	3	62%	0.04	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
DeMarre Carroll	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	9	30%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.3	0.30	0.21	0.13	0.04	25	66%	0.37	1	-0.08	8	100%	0.06
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	47%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	53%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	11	42%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	14	40%	-0.05	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.4	31.4	16.5	29.5	3.6	42.9	152.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +66.6%

MIA -6.1%

TOR +2.2%

MIA -10.0%

MIA -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.7	14.9	106.7	101.1	105.1
season	16.1	15.5		107.2	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.1	15.6	18.1	14.4	16.5
MIA	15.4	17.1	15.3	15.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	73	75	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.44	13	-9	22	16.6	16.2	0.39	15.5	16.7	-1.19
DeMarre Carroll	70	72	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-9	22	16.8	15.3	1.51	15.9	14.8	1.13
Patrick Patterson	62	64	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.37	13	-9	22	17.9	13.3	4.66	15.9	15.1	0.84
Kyle Lowry	75	79	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.39	8	-4	12	16.5	16.4	0.18	15.9	13.8	2.12
Jonas Valanciunas	37	40	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.03	12	-8	20	18.2	15.3	2.84	16.8	14.7	2.11
Cory Joseph	46	43	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.36	-8	12	-20	15.7	17.4	-1.72	14.3	17.0	-2.68
Bismack Biyombo	27	24	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	8	-12	14.0	17.6	-3.65	13.4	16.5	-3.08
Norman Powell	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	7	-10	13.0	16.9	-3.95	14.4	15.8	-1.37
Terrence Ross	35	34	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	-0.09	-11	15	-26	14.9	17.5	-2.62	17.1	14.8	2.22
Luis Scola	10	10	-0.50	1.00	-1.49	-0.12	-13	17	-30	18.4	16.3	2.13	15.1	15.7	-0.65

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	26	26	0.33	-0.83	1.17	0.10	8	-12	20	17.3	15.0	2.24	14.9	17.2	-2.24
Gerald Green	37	37	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.03	4	-8	12	17.9	14.1	3.81	15.9	16.9	-1.00
Hassan Whiteside	17	16	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	1	-6	15.3	15.8	-0.47	15.8	16.7	-0.85
Amar'e Stoudemire	6	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	0	-4	16.7	15.6	1.06	17.9	16.4	1.47
Goran Dragic	55	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-2	0	15.2	16.5	-1.32	16.1	17.3	-1.21
Luol Deng	73	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-9	14	14.8	19.6	-4.89	16.5	16.6	-0.11
Josh Richardson	57	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-4	4	16.1	14.9	1.26	15.6	18.0	-2.42
Udonis Haslem	39	38	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.48	-3	-1	-2	15.3	16.0	-0.74	18.4	15.1	3.39
Dwyane Wade	68	66	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.39	-8	4	-12	15.2	17.3	-2.11	17.3	14.3	3.03
Joe Johnson	72	68	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.35	-15	11	-26	15.6	15.8	-0.19	16.7	15.8	0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.37,0.26,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.55,0.23,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 99, ORL 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.24,0.04,0	91.9%
DAL 89, SAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.28,0.22,0.27,0	91.8%
BKN 102, PHX 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.54,0.66,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.23,0	90.6%